Zagreb to steer its own course

After intensive lobbying, Croatia appears to have finally and decisively separated its bid to join the EU from Turkey’s efforts to become an EU member.

Although membership negotiations started at the same time, on 3 October 2005, Croatia is now well ahead, having closed two chapters, while Turkey has only closed one.

Croatia is now deep into the minutiae of transposing EU legislation in the 35 areas that are subject to EU accession negotiations, or negotiating chapters.

In 2006, Croatia closed one chapter in each EU presidency. During Austria’s chairmanship at the beginning of 2006, negotiations on science and research started and ended, the completion of discussions on consumer and health protection had to wait until the Finnish presidency in the second half of the year.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, Croatia’s foreign minister, is bullish about how much Croatia can achieve before Germany, one of Croatia’s biggest allies in the EU, completes its term as president of the European Council on 30 June.

Grabar-Kitarovic is targeting the 15 chapters that the European Commission said could start without any preconditions when talks began.

"Our ambition is to open as many chapters as possible - certainly those in which we do not have any opening benchmarks - and try to close some as well. We have defined the year 2009 as a target date [to join the EU]. Of course, it is upon the EU to take the decision when Croatia will go in, but for us it is important to have a target date in order to space our obligations and to be able to fulfil the criteria," Grabar-Kitarovic said in Brussels yesterday (7 March).

Realistically, diplomats say that Croatia can expect, in the next four months, to conclude negotiations on intellectual property law and perhaps enterprise and industrial policy, although the latter might prove more problematic.

But as the demands pile up, Zagreb is finding that some EU requests are better dealt with outside an election year.

Before talks on enterprise and industrial policy can conclude, the EU has asked Croatia to put in place restructuring programmes for its steel and shipbuilding industries.

Croatia has produced a strategy for the steel sector, but has missed an EU deadline for submitting its plans to restructure the shipbuilding industry, although diplomats say those plans are now being transmitted to Brussels.

"The industry is very heavily subsidised by the state," said one EU official, adding that the urgent reforms needed "cannot be done overnight".

One reason for Croatia stalling may be the prospect of parliamentary elections in November, with newspapers reporting massive job losses in both the steel and shipbuilding sectors, as a result of the requested reforms.

But according to one EU official, Croatia will have to embrace reforms regardless of the electoral cycle: "They have set themselves this ambitious target of taking part in the [European Parliament] elections in 2009, so you cannot take a sabbatical from reforms just because it is an election year."

But Jadranbrod, the Croatian shipbuilding industry’s association, says that the sector employs 10,000 people in four main areas along the coast - Pula, Rijeka, Split and Trogir - making it a vital industry in some important constituencies.

"These are not just economic, but rather complex socio-economic issues," admitted Grabar-Kitarovic, adding that it was not only the future of "shipbuilding or the steel industries" at stake, but also "the workers who work in those industries".

"We have submitted proposals for the restructuring of the steel industry and we are working on the individual plans for the restructuring of each shipyard. We are working with the Commission on that and I know we are past the deadline, but it is one of the more difficult aspects of industrial policy."

Croatia will soon have to negotiate other sensitive issues in the areas of agriculture, environment and competition policy.

"Of course there will be other chapters that will not be easy," said Grabar-Kitarovic. She acknowledged that the environmental protection chapter would require "long-term transition and long-term efforts". But difficulties concerning the environment are primarily questions of cost.

Other issues will be more politically sensitive, including subsidies given to the Vukovar area, which was deserted during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, to boost regional development.

"[The subsidies] are not in conformity with the market system existing in the EU, but for us it is not just a market issue," said Grabar-Kitarovic.

Many ethnic Croatians fled Vukovar during the fall of Yugoslavia, when Serb paramilitaries targeted the area. The Croatian government has since provided substantial aid to entice those who were displaced to return. The EU says the support is illegal, but it remains a sensitive issue in Croatia.

Croatians may be learning that it is not only France’s electoral cycle or Turkey’s problematic membership bid that influence the rhythm of negotiations - it is also their own political sensitivities.

After intensive lobbying, Croatia appears to have finally and decisively separated its bid to join the EU from Turkey’s efforts to become an EU member.