‘Yes, but…’ decision now likely on Turkey

By Dick Leonard

Date: 16/09/04

WEDNESDAY 6 October will be the day on which the retiring Commission of Romano Prodi will make its last important decision - whether to recommend to the European Council meeting in December to start membership negotiations with Turkey early next year.

It had long been assumed that the Commission, whose remit is essentially to make a judgment on Turkey's progress in meeting the "Copenhagen criteria" for membership, would produce a favourable report. On any assessment, the Turks have made a great deal more progress in the right direction than anybody could reasonably have predicted in 2002, when the European Council decided to defer its decision until late in 2004.

Yet, within the past two weeks, powerful voices have been raised by individual commissioners predicting dire consequences for the EU if the way is cleared for Turkish accession. First, Dutch commissioner Frits Bolkestein, in a fiery speech at Leiden University, warned of the possible "Islamicization" of Europe, and said Turkish entry could make the EU "implode". Then it emerged that his Austrian colleague, Franz Fischler, had addressed a letter to his 29 colleagues, calling for a "plan B", which would give Turkey a "special partnership status" rather than full membership.

Fischler, the agriculture commissioner, claims that the cost to the Common Agricultural Policy of Turkish membership would be €11.3 billion per year, "larger than for all the ten new member states". This is a highly speculative figure that takes no account of developments in agricultural funding in the ten years or so that are likely to elapse before Turkey is able to join the EU.

Three or four other commissioners were believed to harbour reservations about Turkish membership, but there was no serious doubt that a large majority of the 30 commissioners, including virtually all the more heavyweight figures, would give a green light to the opening of negotiations.

Then a dispute about the revision of the Turkish penal code provoked a storm of criticism within the EU, and even led to speculation that it could shipwreck the whole accession process. Paradoxically, the revision was decided on by the Turkish government as a further step to make Turkey more acceptable to its European partners.

It had brought forward the opening of the Turkish parliamentary session by two weeks, to 14 September, so that the changes to the penal code, the overall objective of which is to align Turkish laws more closely to EU standards and to enhance the rights of women and non-Muslims, could be approved before the Commission meeting on 6 October.

However, within the 346 proposed articles of the Code, was a proposal to make adultery illegal, with offenders liable to fines or terms of imprisonment. Such a provision had appeared in the previous Code, but it had been struck out by the Constitutional Court in 1997 because it was seen to discriminate against women.

The new article made it clear that it applied also to men, but this did not appease the proposal's many critics, both inside and outside Turkey, who regarded it as an unacceptable attempt to "Islamicize" the country's secular laws.

They pointed out that adultery is not illegal in any of the EU member states, and that - together with a rash of "honour killings" which the authorities have so far failed to stamp out - its adoption would be certain to boost the numbers of those who regard Turkish accession as unacceptable.

The row blew up during last week's visit to Turkey of enlargement commissioner Günter Verheugen, who was making a last-minute check on the progress on the ground of the Turkish reform process before finalizing his recommendation to the Commission as a whole. His public remarks during the visit were overwhelmingly positive in tone and he made no public reference to the adultery issue, though he is believed to have warned Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül privately of the potentially disastrous consequences of persisting with the proposal.

His words seem to have had their effect. Erdogan left on Tuesday for an official visit to Tajikistan, but Gül met the party caucus of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), just as the parliamentary debate on the Code was getting under way. They agreed to seek a deal with the opposition Republican Party (CHP), under which the clause would be quietly dropped. A few hours later, opposition leader Deniz Baykal, flanked by two government ministers, indicated to reporters that the offending clause would not be included when the motion approving the Code is put to a vote.

This should be sufficient to ensure a positive recommendation from the Commission, and also from the European Parliament, which will give its own view at the November plenary session, ahead of the European Council meeting. However, the adultery episode - even if it is satisfactorily resolved - will still have caused some damage, and the Commission's recommendation is likely to take the form of a "Yes, but," rather than the more wholehearted verdict expected.

Unless the "but" proves to be a very big one, it is now scarcely conceivable that the December summit will not go ahead and name the date for the opening of negotiations. Six months ago, only three member governments were believed by EU diplomats to oppose an early opening of negotiations - the Netherlands, Austria and France, though President Jacques Chirac was personally in favour.

The latest assessment by "insiders" is that the Dutch, who now hold the presidency, wish the proposal to go forward and that Chirac will carry the French government with him, despite his anger and embarrassment at US President George W. Bush's peremptory demand at the Istanbul NATO summit that the EU should take Turkey in. This leaves only Austria, where public opinion remains highly sceptical, but where the government has no stomach for fighting on in a minority of one.

Nor do any of the new member states look like opposing the clear majority view. So - barring further accidents - the way seems open to begin what is certain to be a lengthy and highly contentious negotiation.

• Dick Leonard is a former assistant editor of The Economist, an ex-Labour MP and the author of many books.

Analysis article previewing the European Commission's opinion on whether negotiations on Turkey's accession to the European Union should open.