Women may hold key to Denmark’s euro referendum

Date: 14/09/00

Opinion polls suggest the outcome of the Danish referendum on euro-zone membership is on a knife-edge. But the yes campaign appears to be gaining momentum as the decision on the country's future in the EU comes closer. Jakob Nielsen reports

Last week, some pollsters put the yes camp comfortably ahead. But only a few days later, opponents of the single currency were back in the lead, as they had been all summer. With a large portion of the electorate still undecided, analysts agree that the vote on 28 September could go either way.

But in the final days of the campaign, supporters of Danish participation in the single currency hope to gain ground by convincing voters that abolishing the krone will not lead to the destruction of the country's entire welfare system.

This new strategy comes after a surprisingly tame effort to rally support by the yes camp during the summer, but observers think it could be enough to push them to victory. "I believe the no campaign peaked too early in the process and that the yes will carry home a 52-48 victory," says Arne Hardis, a leading political analyst at the Danish weekly Weekendavisen. "But just like everyone else, I am a slave of the polls and really, anything could happen."

In theory, there should be no doubting the yes camp's victory, as the dice are loaded in its favour. By the end of the campaign, it will have spent almost h710,000 on the battle for hearts and minds, while its opponents have had less than a third of that amount at their disposal. Apart from one tabloid, all the Danish newspapers are advocating a yes vote, as are a vast majority of members of the Danish parliament, the Folketing.

But when it comes to the euro, large portions of the Danish electorate choose to listen to parties on the far left and the far right of the political spectrum, amid fears that closer EU integration would profoundly change society.

"There is no doubt that the best argument of the opponents is the one saying that the ruling parties are only presenting the thin end of the wedge," says Hardis. "There is a strong feeling that joining the euro will mean still more decisions being taken in Brussels and eventually lead to the creation of the United States of Europe. I think this argument is far more important than the somewhat nationalistic slogans put forward by the right-wing Danish Peoples Party."

Many Danes fear that closer integration will result in the dismantling of the welfare state, and that joining the euro zone will open the door to an era in which the safe and familiar Scandinavian model will come under immense pressure.

One of the leading no campaigners, MEP Jens-Peter Bonde, argues that even if the single currency in itself will not force Denmark to cut pensions or social welfare, this will be the long-term consequence of entering a monetary union with countries which have signif-icantly different welfare systems.

"The Danish welfare model will come under pressure no matter if we join the euro or not," he says. "Only, since we are not going to have a referendum on the Nice Treaty, this is our last chance to say no. A rejection of the euro will force the government to block qualified majority voting on tax and social welfare in the Intergovernmental Conference."

The challenge for the government and other yes campaigners is therefore to convince voters that a vote in favour of euro-zone membership represents continuity and stability, whereas a no result would put the welfare system at risk.

Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen appears to have realised the importance of the welfare theme as far back as the spring, when he reshuffled his cabinet and made the government's most popular figure, Henrik Dam Kristensen, social affairs minister.

Kristensen has kept a low profile until now, but is going into the final stage of the campaign with the message that the welfare state will not disappear because of the euro. He will undoubtedly target this message in particular at one group of voters which is by far the most sceptical section of the electorate: women working in the public sector. According to the MEP for the Socialist Peoples Party, no-voter Pernille Frahm, this is no surprise. "The European Commission has already recommended that Denmark cut public expenditure, and even though the minister of economics has rejected that, a lot of people fear that, eventually, the iron fist will come out of the velvet glove," she says.

"For Danish women that is extremely worrying. A well-functioning public sector is a prerogative for women being able to join the labour market."

Also, the vast majority of jobs in the public sector - especially when it comes to welfare posts such as nurses and teachers - are occupied by women. As analyst Arne Hardis puts it: "Women are the ones managing the welfare state that they fear will disappear. They are the caretakers in the building which will have to open its doors to the outside if it is a yes."

Supporters of the single currency have focused so far on the question of influence. The krone is already pegged to the euro, which forces the government to respect the rules laid down to ensure fiscal discipline in the euro zone.

Very few people have seriously proposed changing this fundamental basis of economic policy. Yes campaigners therefore argue the only real question is whether Denmark should have a seat at the decision table.

"The best argument for a yes ought to be that it is recommended by all responsible parties in Danish politics," says Hardis. "Those who have been responsible for building the modern Danish state all want to join the euro. But it does not work that way, and that is because of the fear that the ruling politicians are not giving the real picture.

"This is a problem that dates back to 1972 when the yes camp promised that the EEC was all about getting better prices for Danish bacon and would never develop into a political union."

Public cynicism increased still further in 1986, when conservative Prime Minister Poul Schlüter asked voters to accept the single market, promising that "the union is stone dead". Only two years ago, Rasmussen won the general election promising that he would personally make sure that the Danish exemption from the euro was not put in danger. "What the yes camp needs to do now is to re-establish its credibility and get to the core of the economic discussion," says Hardis.

And if they fail? A no vote would certainly spark a huge political crisis but it is far from certain that it would force Rasmussen out of office. Voters may lack confidence in the way the government handles European questions, but they would not want the no campaign to run Denmark.

Ironically, Rasmussen could therefore possibly strengthen his position in the Folketing if he called a general election just after a defeat in the euro referendum. "Since the Danish voters in general want to play it safe, they would probably also choose the safest thing in a general election. That is why the right-of-centre opposition fears that the prime minister could call elections just after having lost the referendum. However, I think an election is unlikely to come immediately after a no," says Hardis.

Whether that happened would probably depend upon the coalition party, the social liberals, who in general oppose elections being called before the government's term of office is over. But if the yes camp wins, Rasmussen would probably wait at least a few months before asking voters to do him yet another favour.

Major feature. Opinion polls suggest the outcome of the Danish referendum on euro-zone membership is on a knife-edge. But the yes campaign appears to be gaining momentum as the decision on the country's future in the EU comes closer.