Will Irish voters stay loyal to Brussels?

Judith Crosbie reports on the preparations for campaigns for and against the Lisbon treaty in Ireland, the only EU member state holding a referendum.

Although a date has not yet been declared for Ireland's referendum on the Lisbon treaty, the political classes are already busy setting out their stall for what will be the EU's only popular vote on the treaty. All the major groups had launched their campaigns by the start of February with posters going up announcing public meetings where the finer detail of the treaty would be debated.

Bertie Ahern, Ireland's prime minister, in a speech at the end of January said the vote on the treaty would be "an opportunity to affirm our commitment to the European project in these times of global economic turbulence".

Irish politics is still scarred by memories of June 2001, when the usually pro-EU voters of Ireland rejected the Nice treaty. A second referendum was passed in October of the same year, after a protocol had been added to the treaty affirming Ireland's military neutrality and the main political parties had galvanised their supporters to vote.

Figures show that during the June 2001 referendum, just 34% of the electorate turned out to vote; 16% of the electorate voted 'Yes' and 19% voted 'No'. In the October 2001 referendum, 49% of the electorate turned out, 31% voted 'Yes' and 18% voted 'No'.

The main political parties, which all support the Lisbon treaty, are adamant that 'Nice I' will not be repeated in this year's referendum, which will take place during the last week of May or the first week of June. "We are not going to allow that to happen again," says Gay Mitchell, a centre-right MEP and referendum campaign director for Ireland's main opposition party, Fine Gael.

Mitchell, along with Fine Gael's four other MEPs, will take charge of organising the campaign. They plan a "30-day pro-active campaign" ahead of polling day, consisting of public canvassing, leafleting and public meetings.

Fianna F‡il, the main party in the government coalition, plans a "nationwide campaign of near-general election proportions", according a spokesman.

The Green Party, which is in government for the first time, was split at a recent party convention over what line to take on the treaty. The Greens have campaigned against EU treaties in all previous referenda. But this time members in favour of supporting the Lisbon treaty fell just short of getting the required number of votes (a two-thirds majority) to campaign for a 'Yes' vote.

The Greens' dilemma means that only one political party in the Irish parliament, the nationalist Sinn FŽin party, will campaign against the treaty. Mary Lou McDonald, a Sinn FŽin MEP, argues against the treaty because of the loss of sovereignty that will follow. "The Lisbon treaty contains the most substantial transfer of powers from member states to the European Council [sic] and Commission to date...it removes our ability democratically to reject laws that are not in our interests and places an unbridgeable gulf between citizens and the decision-making processes which affect them," she recently wrote.

Other left-wing, anti-globalisation and anti-militaristic groups campaigning against the treaty include, 'The Campaign Against the EU Constitution, Vote No to the Lisbon Treaty', the People's Movement and the VoteNo.ie website.

A new anti-Lisbon group which has caught the attention of the media in Ireland is Libertas, led and funded by businessman Declan Ganley. The group also argues that the treaty will erode Irish sovereignty and remove the requirement that the government put future major changes at EU-level to the electorate. "Europe is going to have a president in this 'constitution' for the first time in its history," Ganley told a press conference in Dublin. "Yet you are never going to be asked under this treaty who that person should be."

Anti-treaty sentiment can be expected to emerge from the more conservative parts of the electorate which fear that the EU will force Ireland to change its laws on moral issues, such as abortion and divorce. The government considered holding the treaty referendum on the same day as a referendum on the rights of children but feared a large turn-out of conservative voters could harm the EU vote.

Neutrality is also a sticky issue for the Irish who take pride in Ireland's peacekeeping efforts but baulk at the prospect of getting dragged into an unpopular war. Ireland has pledged 450 troops to the EU's 3,700-strong mission in Chad and an Irish general will lead the mission. But articles are already appearing in newspapers questioning Irish involvement in the former French colony where Paris's military and political influence is still strong.

Those driving the 'Yes' campaign believe that this time around the customary fears among the Irish electorate about sovereignty, moral issues and neutrality will not play a big part. "It's the economy, stupid," says the Fianna F‡il spokesman. "When Ireland voted 'No' in the first Nice referendum our growth rate was 10%. Ireland's growth rate is now 2%. Ireland needs Europe more than ever now," he adds.

But Mitchell believes the economy argument could go either way and could present the biggest challenge to the 'Yes' campaign. "People feel Ireland has done well and is doing well but they must commit to Europe to keep the economy buoyant," he says.

The 'Yes' campaign laments a court judgement from 1995 which bans state funds being used to promote one side in a referendum. The national state broadcaster, RTƒ, must give equal air-time to both sides of the campaign.

But other issues could complicate the campaign to get the treaty passed. Since last year Ahern has faced questions over his personal finances. He is being investigated by a tribunal examining political corruption. Recently (11 February) he applied to the High Court to limit the investigations of the tribunal.

Perhaps the biggest challenge that the 'Yes' campaign will have to overcome is voter confusion and apathy. A recent poll by the Irish Times showed 64% of those polled said they did not know whether they would vote for or against the treaty. "If you don't know, vote No", was the slogan adopted by sections of the 'No' campaign at the time of the Nice referendum, which could yet haunt those seeking a positive result.

The 'Yes' campaign may be adamant that the mistakes of the past will not be repeated during this referendum campaign, but the next few months could prove a long time in Irish politics.

Taking sides

• Fianna F‡il (main government party)

• Fine Gael (main opposition party)

• Labour Party (third largest party)

• Progressive Democrats (junior government party)

• IBEC (employers' organisation)

• Irish Farmers' Organisation

• Sinn FŽin (socialist, nationalist party)

• The Campaign Against the EU Constitution, Vote No to the Lisbon Treaty (with affiliates groups such as Communist Party of Ireland, Irish Anti War Movement, Peace & Neutrality Alliance, People Before Profit, People's Movement, Socialist Party, Socialist Workers Party and the Workers Party)

• Libertas (centre-right movement concerned about sovereignty transfer)

Judith Crosbie reports on the preparations for campaigns for and against the Lisbon treaty in Ireland, the only EU member state holding a referendum.