Why No Deal Would Be Much Worse Than a Bad Deal

The likelihood that the Brexit negotiations break down irrevocably and Britain leaves the EU with no deal is slim but certainly not zero. Were the UK to leave without a deal of any kind, EU tariffs would immediately be payable on imports from Britain. These average about 4 per cent, but vary hugely. British food exporters would face average tariffs of 14 per cent. British car exports, which have grown more rapidly than any other category of manufactured goods exports over the last ten years, would face a 10 per cent tariff. The UK would also have to impose tariffs on its imports from the EU: it would only be allowed to reduce tariffs to zero – as some eurosceptics have proposed – if it did so for all countries, not just the EU.

ESO: Background information: Mitigating the impact of tariffs on UK-EU trade http://www.europeansources.info/record/mitigating-the-impact-of-tariffs-on-uk-eu-trade/

ESO: Background information: Nothing to declare. A plan for UK-EU trade outside the Customs Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/nothing-to-declare-a-plan-for-uk-eu-trade-outside-the-customs-union/

ESO: Background information: 'Hard Brexit', International Trade and the WTO Scenario http://www.europeansources.info/record/hard-brexit-international-trade-and-the-wto-scenario/

ESO: Background information: The EU Single Market: The Value of Membership versus Access to the UK http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-eu-single-market-the-value-of-membership-versus-access-to-the-uk/

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