Who’s in and who’s out in next Commission

By Dana Spinant and Martin Banks

Date: 29/01/04

WITH barely five months to go before EU governments announce nominations for the commissioners who will run the executive in 2004-09, speculation is mounting on the survivors from the present line-up

European Voice has been taking soundings from 'those in the know' and predicts that only five of Romano Prodi's 20-strong team will remain in Brussels.

The next Commission, which takes office on 1 November, will be composed of 25 members - one from each EU state.

But who is likely to make the cut, who would stay if asked and who is definitely on the way out?

LIKELY TO STAY

Michel Barnier

(regional affairs). French, 52. Wants to be "as useful as possible". Achieved high profile on the European Convention. Has a good chance of being reappointed as he is highly rated by President Jacques Chirac.

Günter Verheugen

(enlargement). German, 59. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has pledged to reappoint him. Sources say that Berlin wants him to be given an "economic" portfolio. Only obstacle could be Joschka Fischer, if he is made EU foreign minister or vice-president.

Margot Wallström

(environment). Swedish, 49. Says current job is best she's ever had. However, backing of premier Göran Persson is in slight doubt following row over September's failed euro referendum. On the other hand, Persson may prefer to keep her in Brussels than in Stockholm, where she could be a rival for his job.

Frits Bolkestein

(internal market). Dutch, 70. Cheekily said that "Ronald Reagan began a second term at 72 and he was successful". (Actually, Reagan was almost 74.) Outspoken, but seen as effective.

Antonio Vitorino

(justice and home affairs). Portuguese, 46. Respected and a master of his brief, is said to be on a shortlist drawn up by Irish EU presidency to replace Romano Prodi as president.

WOULD STAY IF ASKED

David Byrne

(health and consumer protection). Irish, 56. Wants a second term. However, fellow national Pat Cox, whose term as Parliament president is almost over, is lobbying for the job.

Philippe Busquin

(research). Belgian, 62. Will not refuse if asked to serve again, but unlikely to be offered a new term. Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt is said to be eyeing the post of Commission president.

Viviane Reding

(education and culture)

Luxembourger, 52. Available for second mandate, but unlikely to get nomination. Her Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker is current hot favourite to become the next Commission president.

DEFINITELY GOING

Romano Prodi

(president). Italian, 64. Likely leader of Italian left set to challenge current premier Silvio Berlusconi in the general election, due by May 2006.

Neil Kinnock

(vice-president, responsible for internal reform). British, 61. Has served two terms already. Wants the freedom to be a "bloody nuisance" and spend more time on the "important" things in life - theatre, music, family and rugby.

Loyola de Palacio

(vice president, responsible for transport and energy). Spanish, 53. Says ten years is too long to spend in Brussels and "misses the sun". Is said to want to join her sister Ana, the current Spanish foreign minister, in a government post. Picture clearer after 14 March election.

Anna Diamantopoulou

(employment and social affairs).

Greek, 44. Returning to domestic politics with Greek Socialist Party. Exact role will be clearer after Greek elections on 7 March.

Franz Fischler

(agriculture). Austrian, 57. After serving two terms he will return to his beloved Tyrol and a university teaching job. Says that ten years in Brussels is "quite enough".

Erkki Liikanen

(enterprise). Finnish, 53. Another two-termer. A parliamentarian at 21, he will return to Finland but yet to decide to do what. Has close contacts with industry so might be lured by top corporate job. Nokia, maybe?

Poul Nielson

(development and humanitarian aid). Danish, 60. Plans to remain "semi-active" in the development field, and to do some writing and gardening.

Chris Patten

(external relations). British, 59. Says job as chancellor of Oxford University is his big task for next decade. Will also be much in demand for his erudite skills as a broadcaster and newspaper columnist. Perhaps the new owners of the Daily Telegraph will make him an offer.

Pedro Solbes

(economic and monetary affairs).

Spanish, 61. Will go down in EU history with former European Central Bank chief Wim Duisenberg for launch of the euro, but recently tainted by Eurostat fiasco. Plans to retire.

Mario Monti

(competition). Italian, 60. "Far too busy" to think about future plans. Unlikely to be offered a third mandate or a job with GE, Microsoft or Ryanair, but stranger things have happened.

Pascal Lamy

(trade). French, 56. Socialist, so unlikely to be reappointed by the centre-right government in Paris. Says he never knows his plans until two months before he starts a new job. Established an excellent rapport with US counterpart so may be lured to a job with transatlantic flavour.

Michaele Schreyer

(budget). German, 52. A green, she has no chance of being reappointed by Berlin, as party is a junior coalition partner. Undecided about future plans.

Articles discusses which of the European Commissioners in the period 1999-2004 will stay on in the new Commission, 2004-2009.