Who wins the championship? Market value and team composition as predictors of success in the top European football leagues

Abstract:

Processes of commercialisation and globalisation have changed professional football and the composition of football teams fundamentally. Against the background of these shifting conditions we investigate to what extent the success of football teams in their national leagues is determined by: (a) the monetary value of the team expressed in its market value, (b) the inequality within the team, (c) the cultural diversity of the team, and (d) the degree of fluctuation among the team members.

The empirical analysis refers to five football seasons, spanning from 2011/2012 until 2015/2016, and includes the twelve most important European football leagues. The findings demonstrate that success in national football championships is highly predictable. The market value of a team is by far the most important single predictor, whereas different features of a team’s composition – inequality, cultural diversity, and fluctuation – are less decisive. However, the market value of a team does not play the same role in all of the leagues. The lower the degree of financial inequality in a league, the lower the impact of the market value on teams’ performance.