Where will defence be in 2025?

Summary:

Two MEPs discuss the future of the European Security and Defence Policy

In a world where the only certain thing is change, in an environment full of diversity, conflicts and tension, faced with rapidly evolving technology, it is difficult to predict the state of European defence in 2025.

It is probable that the EU will have reached its geographical and institutional borders by that time, most likely without Turkey, which will, however, have become a dominant regional power and an important partner of the EU. We will be able to witness the advantages of a united Europe in the globalisation era, with the EU becoming a global actor in both the political and economic arena. By that time, we will also reach a critical point concerning demography, the environment and energy supply.

In order to analyse the defence perspective, we should take into account the numbers and structure of the European population in 2025. According to Eurostat, the population growth rate will decline in most European countries, despite increased migration flows and longer life-expectancy. This poses some serious questions for security and defence matters. Even though the share of immigrants will increase, the population will not be sufficient to satisfy all the requirements of national defence and security.

In 2025, EU military forces will be less numerous and will be used mostly for rapid reaction in ensuring EU defence, being used more often for this type of role than for offensive action.  Since there will be fewer people suitable for military service, more weight will be given to the development of warfare strategy and tactics, to new technologies and instruments for remote action, namely from air and outer space. We will also experience many difficulties in the harmonisation of European armed forces, due to rapid developments in military technology.