What to do with ‘the last remaining true dictatorship in the heart of Europe’

Drawing on September parliamentary elections in Belarus, this analysis argues that the West, and especially the EU, should tackle the Belarusian case jointly with Russia avoiding a new confrontation after the Georgia war. However, the EU latest decisions on Belarus seems to go in the opposite direction. The opposition to the Lukashenka’s regime is too divided and fragmented while the president, although ruling in an authoritarian manner during the last 14 years, enjoys a certain popularity among its citizens for having safeguarded the country from the economic difficulties and political chaos experienced by other post-Soviet states.

Moreover, Belarus suffers the competition of the EU and the US, on the one hand, and of Russia, on the other hand. These forces have neither the same ascendant nor a comparable leverage. The EU has a very limited influence while Russia is able to put under strain the country’s survival. So far the slight breaches of the regime have been caused by economic factors, and in particular by the Russian decision to increase gas prices.

ISPI: Policy Brief: What to do with 'the last remaining true dictatorship in the heart of Europe' [PDF] http://www.ispionline.it/sites/default/files/pubblicazioni/giusti_1_0.pdf

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