What the ISIS Crisis Means for the Future of the Middle East

Abstract:

Despite all the intellectual energy devoted to understanding 'what ISIS really is', the group remains unpredictable and inexplicable for two main reasons. First, the existing frameworks are not appropriate for a holistic assessment of the organisation, prompting analysts to mistake ISIS’ tactics or propaganda for its political objectives. Second, an almost exclusive emphasis on ISIS per se distracts from the symbiotic and complex relationship between ISIS and the bigger regional crisis.

This article draws attention to three interrelated dynamics. First, ISIS is best seen as a 'process', not as a static 'thing' that can be easily identified. Second, ISIS’ successes and failures cannot be divorced from the multi-dimensional crisis in the region. Third, it is necessary to consider the groups’ impacts on the greater Middle East with respect to two interrelated dimensions: sectarian tensions and existing ethnic relations.