What can we expect from Russia in Syria?

Ever since it started at the end of September 2015, Russia’s military engagement in Syria has given rise to many questions, contradictory interpretations, different hopes and fears. While some have seen it as anti-Western policy, others have hoped that it will eventually lead to a common anti-ISIS coalition in Syria. The terrorist bombing of a Russian passenger plane over Sinai and Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian fighter jet in November 2015 have only added to hopes, fears and questions.

So how to interpret Russia’s actions in Syria? Why is it there? What to expect from Russia in Syria, and what not to expect?

The motivators of Russia’s actions in Syria are rooted in three contexts: strategic, transactional and domestic.

ESO: Background information: Russian warplane shot down near Turkey-Syria border / Turkey feels Putin’s fury over downed fighter http://www.europeansources.info/record/russian-warplane-shot-down-near-turkey-syria-border-turkey-feels-putins-fury-over-downed-fighter/

ESO: Background information: Hollande’s emerging war strategy http://www.europeansources.info/record/hollandes-emerging-war-strategy/

ESO: Background information: Syria talks in Vienna http://www.europeansources.info/record/syria-talks-in-vienna/

ESO: Background information: Putin’s Gamble in Syria / Russia's Military Intervention in Syria Makes It a Key Regional Player / Russia, Syria and the West: Mutually Assured Frustration http://www.europeansources.info/record/putins-gamble-in-syria-russias-military-intervention-in-syria-makes-it-a-key-regional-player-russia-syria-and-the-west-mutually-assured-frustration/

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