Wars (and the US) don’t stop in August

In Brussels, August is firmly seen as the collective month off, ahead of the solid four-month stretch of autumn. What a pity that the rest of the world does not do likewise.

In the Middle East, Israel, Hizbullah and Hamas will no doubt continue to wreak havoc and the Lebanon will try desperately to deal with its wounds. Syria will continue to support Hizbullah and seek to be engaged by the international community in order to mediate between the sides - hoping thereby to gain some political and economic ground.

Iran will continue to support Hizbullah and seek to gain leverage from its involvement in Lebanon against its stand-off with the west over its continuing development of its nuclear capabilities.

August will be a regular month in Afghanistan: the situation will continue to deteriorate, with the Taliban becoming more emboldened, and the NATO troops, many of whom are from European nations, will become increasingly besieged. Like the Lebanon, but far from the media glare, infrastructure will continue to be bombed by both sides and many civilians will die.

The US will be busily engaged in these matters and many more, since Americans notoriously do not take holidays (apart from President George W. Bush). Indeed, Condoleezza Rice may even decide to shuttle around within or between them, possibly taking off a long weekend in between. But no doubt while she does so Susan Schwab, the US trade representative will be hard at her desk, alternately trying to develop a line on the failed Doha round in the World Trade Organization - and continuing the slanging match with the EU over the matter. She will hope to find someone in Brussels with whom to have a match.

The failure of Doha, whilst primarily a trade matter, has wide implications for the EU: its relations with all those developing states around the world, headed by Brazil and India, that opposed the deal offered by the developed world need to be carefully managed following the collapse of the talks. This is significant for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), much as the Lebanon is clearly a matter of Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). But not in August.

The list of ongoing issues can be lengthened, though it is fair to say that most are not of a burning nature. It is also fair to say that everyone needs a proper holiday - and perhaps the population of the US would benefit from a long one, which may in turn reduce its intense activism to the benefit of us all. But that is not the point, which is that while matters of finance and fisheries may be dealt with at a low level throughout a month, barring unexpected crises, matters of ESDP and CFSP cannot. By their very nature they are both created and driven by actors external to the EU, and unpredictable.

There will undoubtedly be duty staff and possibly some extra personnel available throughout the coming weeks and decision-makers will probably be reachable at all times. Such a scaled back set-up may be sufficient for an organisation that is already a player on the world stage - though that too is doubtful; but it is decidedly inadequate for an organisation seeking to become a player in international affairs.

The matter will no doubt be discussed after August.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels.

In Brussels, August is firmly seen as the collective month off, ahead of the solid four-month stretch of autumn. What a pity that the rest of the world does not do likewise.

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