Waiting for Bob to go away

The crisis in Zimbabwe will feature prominently at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday (23 April) with the Europeans anxious to see the end of Robert Mugabe’s presidency.

But the Europeans are reluctant to take the lead, fearing that to do so would help Mugabe portray himself as a victim of western white oppressors.

While yesterday (18 April) was being marked in Zimbabwe as Independence Day, the chaos in the southern African country was being discussed at a series of meetings in Brussels. The German presidency of the EU convened a meeting of the directors with responsibility for Africa from the national foreign ministries. Zimbabwe also featured on the agenda of the Political and Security Committee, the grouping of representatives from the member states which prepares foreign and security policy issues at ambassadorial level. Zimbabwe was also the subject of talks among the permanent representatives from the member states.

One of the issues for the EU is to discern whether Mugabe, now aged 83, will try to hold on to power much longer and even stand in next year’s presidential elections.

The political situation in Zimbabwe took a turn for the worse on 11 March, when members of the opposition, church leaders and students staged a protest against the Mugabe government in the capital Harare. When police broke up the meeting, 50 people were beaten and hundreds of opposition members were detained around the country, including Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change.

The attacks left at least two people dead. One man was shot during an opposition rally and the body of a cameraman, who filmed the event, was later discovered dumped by the roadside.

Meanwhile the Zimbabwean economy is on its knees and has the highest rate of inflation in the world. For the month of February, according to official statistics, the annual rate of inflation stood at 1,730%. The government has delayed sending the figures for March to the International Monetary Fund but it is estimated that the inflation rate is now more than 2,000%.

These developments and Mugabe’s age have heightened expectation of change, even though the president has shown remarkable survival skills over the last 27 years.

An EU official said that the Union had to prepare the ground now if the Zimbabwe was to have free democratic elections next year.

According to one EU diplomat an ideal scenario for the EU would see Mugabe retire, allowing a new interim leader to step forward who would prepare free and fair elections.

Diplomats and officials insist there is no "road map" for change in Zimbabwe, or even an insistence that Mugabe leave. But few suspect that he will dramatically alter his policies and his isolation is likely to continue.

The EU’s efforts to isolate Mugabe are complicated by its wish to develop its relations with other countries in Africa, in the face of growing competition for alliances from China, Russia and others. Mugabe has been skilful in allying himself with other African nations and some EU member states do not want to risk good relations with other African countries for the sake of getting tough with Zimbabwe.

Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado has repeatedly said that Zimbabwe will be invited to an EU-Africa summit at the end of the year in Portugal.

The UK and other member states have been quietly critical of Amado’s comments, coming, as they do, a full eight months before the meeting and three months before Portugal takes over the chairmanship of the Council of Ministers. Portugal will be asked to come up with a solution that does not allow Mugabe or the issue of Zimbabwe to dominate the event.

The German presidency has so far taken a cautious line. It waited to hear the response of some governments in Africa to the 11 March events before making the EU’s voice heard. Member states, particularly the UK, want to avoid a repeat of previous crises when Mugabe has used vocal western criticism to bolster domestic support against an outside threat.

For the moment, EU member states appear obliged to put their trust in other countries in the region, South Africa foremost among them, orchestrating Mugabe’s exit.

The EU’s ability to convince South Africa to play a more active role could be crucial in deciding whether Mugabe negotiates his exit from power.

In an attempt to put some pressure on the South African government, EU foreign ministers will voice their support on Monday for the decision by Zimbabwe’s neighbours in the Southern Africa Development Community to appoint South African President Thabo Mbeki to mediate in the Zimbabwe crisis.

Describing this as a "new step" one official added that "the big question in our minds is ‘will this actually lead anywhere?’".

"The potentially positive part, and I stress potentially positive, of the situation is this evident recognition and public acknowledgement of leaders in the region of how bad the situation is," added the official.

South Africa now accommodates millions of Zimbabwean refugees and fears of a Zimbabwe implosion sending shock-waves over into neighbouring countries have damaged the value of the South African rand, but the government in Pretoria has been reluctant to condemn Mugabe publicly.

If Mbeki does not negotiate a deal to share power between the Zimbabwean opposition and the ruling Zanu-PF party, then the EU may consider further sanctions against individual members of the regime.

On Monday (16 April) the Council of Ministers agreed changes to a list of Mugabe associates against whom restrictive measures should be imposed - including a travel ban and a freezing of funds and assets. The list was revised to take account of changes to the government. It now comprises Mugabe himself and another 129 individuals. There will be no general economic sanctions but nor will the EU bail the current government out of its current economic crisis.

"In terms of economic reconstruction and capacity-building, we don’t see any scope for all of that happening until there is a change in fundamental change in direction of the policies of Zimbabwe, otherwise you are throwing good money after bad," said one source.

The crisis in Zimbabwe will feature prominently at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday (23 April) with the Europeans anxious to see the end of Robert Mugabe’s presidency.