Voters threaten to unseat Ahern

A year ago even the most ardent gamblers in Ireland would not have bet money on a change of government in the general election, which is to take place on 24 May.

An economy that just will not stop booming, a financial wind-fall for many citizens from a government saving scheme and a vote-winning prime minister in Bertie Ahern - all made it look as if the main government party would pull off yet another victory. Things looked so grim in January for the main opposition party, Fine Gael, that there was talk of a leadership challenge.

But opinion polls are now suggesting that Bertie Ahern, who has been prime minister for nearly ten years, might be losing his grip on power.

The polls reflect public tiredness with Ireland’s dominant party, Fianna Fáil, which apart from a brief break from December 1994 to June 1997 has been in government for almost 20 years. Voters are also showing frustration over persistent questions about the private finances of Ahern, who has admitted accepting loans from leading businessmen. They are also weary of a bitter dispute with nurses over a pay increase and a 35-hour working week.

An opinion poll published in the Irish Times last Friday (11 May) put a putative ‘Rainbow Coalition’, of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party, two percentage points ahead of the current government coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats. For the first time the poll suggests that a majority expect opposition parties to form the next government.

The differences between the two coalition formations and differences between the coalition parties over policy towards Europe could have repercussions when Ireland comes to the EU table.

Traditionally Fine Gael is a more pro-European party, willing to tackle national sensitivities in the interests of playing a stronger role in the EU. Ireland’s role in defence and security is the most obvious example, with Fine Gael declaring it would remove the current requirement for a UN-mandate before Irish troops can be committed to peacekeeping missions. That would mean that Ireland would be able to send troops on peacekeeping tours such as the EU-led mission in Macedonia, which was opposed in the UN Security Council. The party’s manifesto states a "commitment to mutual defence with our EU neighbours, but with specific provisions that would allow Ireland to decide whether to get involved in any conflict on a ‘case by case’ basis".

Fianna Fáil would take a more cautious approach. But Fine Gael’s possible future coalition partner, the Green Party, would oppose any moves that committed Ireland to EU common defence. Fine Gael will recall the Green Party’s campaign against the Nice treaty, which was rejected in the first Irish referendum largely because of fears over the erosion of Ireland’s neutrality.

Fine Gael would be less reticent than Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats have been about signing up to EU proposals for greater co-operation in justice and home affairs. In particular Fine Gael supports the use of the passerelle clause, suggested last year by the European Commission, which would see national vetoes removed in some areas of police and judicial co-operation, a move which was vehemently opposed by the Irish government over fears of loss of national sovereignty.

All three of the main political parties support the constitutional treaty, which Ireland’s own constitution requires be put to the people in a referendum. The Green Party, however, insists in its manifesto that it "will not be put to a referendum in a form that has already been rejected by referendums in other member states". Given that the current government brokered the deal on the treaty during the Irish presidency in June 2004, a Fianna Fáil-led government has a particular interest in seeing it come to fruition.

Ahern has said he wants to see the constitution retain as much of the original elements as possible, though he has grudgingly accepted a slimmed down version. Fine Gael is in agreement and says it will put the treaty to a referendum within a year of forming a government, "unless an alternative approach is agreed at European level". Prionsias de Rossa, an MEP for the Labour Party, says it is important that the social issues and Charter of Fundamental Rights are not dropped from the treaty, leaving just institutional elements. "We don’t want a mini-treaty because we don’t want a mini-Europe, we need a strong democratic Europe," he says.

A change of government would mean few changes on issues where the Irish voice will speak out - in opposition to harmonisation of corporate tax rates and in support of the Common Agricultural Policy.

But that should not lull those in the EU institutions into thinking that a change in Irish government would bring no change in policy: an examination of Fine Gael’s manifesto shows that the party wants to do away with the Parliament’s seat in Strasbourg and says debates in the Council of Ministers’ on new laws should be made public.

The parties

• Fianna Fáil (78 TDs - members of parliament): Led by Bertie Ahern, it has been in power for the majority of the last 20 years. Broad-based, urban-rural support with a centre-right emphasis

• Fine Gael (32): Led by Enda Kenny, the party has much to prove following a disastrous general election in 2002 when it won one of its lowest numbers of Dáil seats. Support greatest among the middle classes and rural areas

• Labour Party (21): Led by Pat Rabbitte, the party’s most likely route into government is a Fine Gael-led coalition, though it has shared power with Fianna Fáil in the past

• Green Party (6): Led by Trevor Sargent, the party may be needed by Fine Gael and Labour to form a government. It was last in power in this formation in 1997

• Sinn Féin (5): Led by Gerry Adams, buoyed by the power-sharing deal in Northern Ireland last week and strong social policies, the party hopes to gain its greatest representation in the Irish parliament in this election. Unlikely that it will be invited into a coalition with any of the major parties

• Progressive Democrats (8): Led by Michael McDowell, a marginal centre-right party with support mainly in south Dublin

• In addition, there are 14 independents, one socialist and the Speaker, making a total of 166

A year ago even the most ardent gamblers in Ireland would not have bet money on a change of government in the general election, which is to take place on 24 May.