Voters oust McDowell from the Dáil

Anyone wanting to assess how last week’s elections in Ireland might affect policy towards the EU need not ponder the possible coalition formations. One dramatic change suffices: the failure of justice minister, Michael McDowell, to retain his parliamentary seat.

McDowell, also the outgoing deputy prime minister and leader of the junior coalition partner, the Progressive Democrats, put his stamp on the justice portfolio like no other recent Irish politician.

At home he delivered reform of the police, the Garda Síochána, and had begun to introduce changes to the prison system. He also took a very different attitude to the organised crime activities of the republican and loyalist paramilitaries, which both the British and Irish governments had previously seemed willing to turn a blind eye to.

In Europe an equally well-formulated way of doing things defined his term at the justice and home affairs council. "McDowell had a very different perspective from most Irish politicians. His views were very Anglo-American centred. His loss will entail a shift in the Irish position," said Ben Tonra, professor in the Dublin European Institute at University College Dublin.

McDowell’s oft-stated motivation for opposing moves to harmonise judicial laws was that the common law system was superior to the Napoleonic Code employed by many European states. He justified this by saying no autocratic regime had ever taken power in a common law country.

This saw McDowell coming out forcefully against a directive on data retention, a plan to extend the remit of the Fundamental Rights Agency to cover police activity and a proposal to lift national vetoes in some areas of police and judicial co-operation. On this latter point he was particularly vociferous and broke the usual Irish tradition of privately supporting other states which publicly opposed EU laws.

"Within the department of justice they are deeply conservative [on EU issues] but someone without the colour and flair of McDowell will be less able to lead the fight on these issues," said Tonra. "Ireland will now be waiting for the Swedes, waiting for the UK, to make the leap in the future," he said.

This could also reduce the probability that Ireland will support the UK in demanding dilution of the elements in the constitution which transfers powers to the EU in the area of justice and home affairs. "Certainly in the department of foreign affairs any new minister would be in a stronger position to direct things than if McDowell had been justice minister," said Tonra.

With the main outgoing government party, Fianna Fáil, expected to lead the next administration after an election, which gave them the same number of seats, Brussels should expect business as usual (aside from the absence of McDowell) from the new Irish government. Fianna Fáil may again form a coalition with the PDs, but since the PDs have just two seats, compared with eight in the previous parliament, support will have to be sought from independent parliamentarians to form a majority. Bertie Ahern, the Irish prime minister, will also discuss forming a government with the Green Party, which won six seats. Although the Greens have traditionally held Eurosceptical views this could change on entering government. "Because Fianna Fáil are going to be the overall dominant party in the coalition…if you add a dollop of green it gives a political sheen or colour but doesn’t change things radically," said Tonra.

The Green Party, which opposed the Nice Treaty during the referendum campaigns in 2001 and 2002 and which has taken strong positions on carbon tax and neutrality, seems to be more inclined to follow the examples of Green parties in other European countries to get into power and influence policy. "To get your policies implemented - as Green parties have done in Germany, Finland, France and Belgium - we will be looking to be in government," Green Party leader Trevor Sargent said this week.

How the parties did

• Fianna Fáil - 78 seats, the same number they held in the last parliament. Despite questions about Bertie Ahern’s finances and a strike by nurses, the party faithful turned out in droves. Expected to be the main party in the next government.

• Fine Gael - 51 seats, up from the 32 seats they held in the last parliament. The party got a boost from a well-run campaign and a good performance from leader Enda Kenny. Unlikely to form the next government since their expected coalition partners failed to make gains.

• Labour - 20 seats, down one from 21. They struggled amid fears of losing ground to Sinn Féin but probably lost votes to Fine Gael, with whom they were in an election pact. As Labour leader Pat Rabbitte declared: "The breakfast roll man didn’t vote Labour."

• Green Party - six seats, the same number as before. They could yet form a government with Fianna Fáil, depending on the demands they make for cabinet posts.

• Sinn Féin - four seats, down one from five. Similarly to Labour, the party failed to convince the working class voters to vote for them.

• Progressive Democrats - two seats, down from eight. The major shock of the election was the obliteration of the PDs which, while expected for some years, came so forcefully. There were some major scalps, including justice minister and party leader, Michael McDowell. His handling of the questions surrounding the Taoiseach’s personal finances have been blamed for the poor result, where he initially supported Ahern’s statements, then appeared to be about to leave government and then supported him again. Could yet form a coalition with Fianna Fáil.

• Five independent parliamentarians were elected making up 166 Dáil deputies.

How the MEPs fared

• Three MEPs stood for the Irish general elections, with just one successfully winning a seat. Simon Coveney, MEP for Fine Gael, which sits in the centre-right EPP-ED group in the European Parliament, retained his national seat. If Fine Gael had formed a government he would have been expected to be appointed to a senior cabinet post. Party colleague Mairead McGuinness failed to win a Dáil seat as did Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald.

The election signalled the end of the dual mandate for Irish MEPs, after which they are no longer allowed to keep their position in Europe if elected to the Dáil. Coveney therefore must step down. Other Irish MEPs who held a seat in the outgoing Dáil, Gay Mitchell (EPP-ED), Eoin Ryan (UEN) and Marian Harkin (Liberal), all chose European politics over national politics and decided not to run for the Dáil.

Anyone wanting to assess how last week’s elections in Ireland might affect policy towards the EU need not ponder the possible coalition formations. One dramatic change suffices: the failure of justice minister, Michael McDowell, to retain his parliamentary seat.