Voter turnout will be above 50%, says Gallup poll

By Martin Banks

Date: 10/06/04

THE European Parliament is heading for a higher-than-expected turnout in elections this week, according to a survey that says that more than half of the voting population of the 25 member states will go to the polls.

A survey published today (10 June) by Gallup predicts a 52% participation rate across the EU, a significant rise on another survey last month which showed a 45% turnout.

A participation above the psychologically important 50% barrier would silence those who have dismissed the 10-13 June election as a non-event.

The survey again reveals that some of the countries which decided by referendum to join the EU recently appear to have had their fill of the voting booth.

Slovakia remains firmly rooted to the bottom of the turnout 'league table' with only 25% of Slovaks saying they are certain to cast a ballot.

They are followed by Estonia (33%) and Poland (35%). The expected participation rate in France has fallen from 53% when the first of Gallup's three polls was taken six weeks ago to 50%.

In 1999, just 24% of Britons voters took part, the lowest in the EU (average 49.8%). This year, the European election will take place on the same day as local elections, which has boosted the numbers saying they will vote to a respectable 43%.

Highest turnout, according to the poll, will be in Belgium (83%) where voting is compulsory.

Not surprisingly, knowledge of the election has risen from 37% at the start of May, to 65%. Voters in new member states are still more informed about the election than 'old' members (69% against 64%) with lack of awareness strongest in the UK and Scandinavian countries.

A sense that their vote will not change anything ranks as the top reason why people don't intend to vote (58%), followed by a lack of information on the election.