Vote on ‘Annan plan’ divides Cyprus

By David Cronin

Date: 15/04/04

THE Cyprus Mail carried what was surely the oddest Easter message this year.

Its Greek Cypriot readership was exhorted to take advantage of the absence of newspapers and political broadcasts on TV by treating itself to "an Annan plan detox for three days".

According to the weekly, the complex blueprint for reunifying the island, signed by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, is the sole topic of conversation in banks, caf's and supermarkets as people gear themselves up for next week's referendum (24 April).

"It is becoming common practice to ask total strangers whether they would be voting 'Yes' or 'No'," says the paper. "If the wrong answer is given, the respondent may have the pleasure of being subjected to a brief sermon by the interrogator about his or her mistaken decision, while the desirable answer will automatically lead to a sense of camaraderie and bonding."

If opinion polls prove accurate, it is likely the simultaneous referendum will be rejected in the Greek Cypriot south, though approved in the Turkish Cypriot north. The VPRC research agency found earlier this month that almost 85% of Greek Cypriots surveyed were in principle opposed to the plan - although significantly, about half of those said they were not certain how they would vote. On the other hand, a poll commissioned by the news magazine Nokta indicated that 63% of Turkish Cypriot voters will plump for the plan, 17% will oppose and nearly 20% remain undecided or intend not to vote.

Among the factors lying behind the unease which the plan has aroused among Greek Cypriots appear to have been the impression conveyed by most newspapers that it is tipped more in favour of the Turkish Cypriots. In particular, the press has seized on the argument that the plan is not generous enough in terms of restoring property to the 168,000 Greek Cypriots forced out of their homes during the 1974 Turkish invasion.

A study conducted by Cyprus' Mass Media Institute found that some coverage has used highly emotive images and language. One paper went so far as insinuating that if Gregoris Afxentiou, whose EOKA guerrillas struggled for an end to British colonial control, was alive today, he would be resisting the proposal.

Current Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos, also a EOKA veteran, has called for a 'No' vote. Last week, he appeared at a rally outside the presidential palace in Nicosia, where demonstrators chanted: "The Annan plan is an act of treachery, it's Cyprus' sell-out to Turkey."

His partners in the ruling coalition, the left-leaning AKEL party, had indicated it would call for a 'Yes' vote.

Yet, in a surprise move, it joined the 'No' camp this week and has pledged to stay there unless the vote is postponed.

The main political forces on the other side of the UN-patrolled 'green line' which divides Nicosia are at loggerheads too. Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktash has been in typically bellicose form lately - to the point of likening Günter Verheugen, the European enlargement commissioner, to a Nazi guard.

But his opposition to the plan is not shared by Mehmet Ali Talat, the more moderate prime minister in northern Cyprus. Perhaps more importantly, Denktash is now out of sync with the government in Turkey, the only country that recognizes his 'republic'.

Denktash has responded to the broadly positive statements about the plan from Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan by accusing him of capitulating to pressure from Greece and the EU and of not being fully informed about the plan's ramifications.

So what happens if Turkish Cypriots say 'Yes' and Greek Cypriots say 'No'?

While this will mean that Cyprus enters the EU as a divided island, with the Union's laws only applying in its Greek Cypriot part, a new paper by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) contends the move will ultimately be to the detriment of the Greek Cypriots.

Michael Emerson, CEPS' researcher, says a 'No' vote would mean the Greek Cypriots being viewed internationally as "the unreasonable party".

"The precise consequences of this cannot be forecast but the least that can be said is that when complex bargaining develops as usual in the EU Councils over a mass of issues, the Greek Cypriot positions would have a cloud over them for some time to come."

By contrast, the constructive approach taken by Erdogan would make EU leaders favourably disposed towards Turkey, boosting chances Ankara will be given the green light to begin accession talks this December.

"The politics of the EU's December decision are still highly uncertain," adds Emerson. "But at least in this scenario Turkey would be released from blame for not trying hard enough to get a solution over Cyprus.

"For Denktash it might even become the dream scenario - with no credit to him - as Turkish Cyprus would not cede any land or property, yet gain in international goodwill.

"For Greek Cypriots, it would become closer to a nightmare, losing any hope of regaining land and property or withdrawal of Turkish troops."