Vote could cause EU-Switzerland crisis

Date: 22/09/05

Swiss voters will vote on Sunday (25 September) in a referendum that has EU-Swiss relations hanging in the balance.

The electorate will be asked to decide on the extension of immigration rights to the EU's ten new member states.

Although a recent poll showed that 50% of the Swiss intend to vote in favour, many voters are undecided and pollsters are warning that a 'No' vote is still possible.

"We think that the result is open," said Lukas Golder, from the research institute GFS.Berne. "Around 30-40% of the Swiss are open to the EU, but this base of people is not enough to carry a 'Yes' vote."

Observers have warned that a negative result could plunge EU-Swiss relations into a crisis.

Under a previously agreed 'guillotine clause', the EU could suspend seven bilateral agreements covering everything from freedom of movement to trade if Switzerland votes 'No'. While many consider the suspension of all agreements unlikely, some reaction is expected. "If the EU thinks that invoking the guillotine clause is too dramatic they could look at other measures," said one Swiss diplomat.

Diana Wallis, European Parliament's rapporteur on Switzerland, said that repealing Swiss rights to enter the EU could not be ruled out. "It is inconceivable that Switzerland would have benefits that EU members do not."

Despite 'Yes' campaigners having backing from parties across the political spectrum, one of Switzerland's biggest groups, the right-wing Swiss People's Party, has defied its ministers in government and has campaigned for a 'No' vote on anti-EU and anti-immigration grounds.

Some supporters of Swiss EU membership have quietly called for a 'No' vote, hoping to prompt a debate on EU-Swiss relations: "I have spoken to people who say they are seriously considering voting 'No' because what they want is membership," said Wallis. "I think that is a very dangerous path to go down."

But according to Golder the EU has done little to bolster the 'Yes' vote.

Support plunged to 39% in July after External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner warned a negative vote would mean the Swiss losing their rights to travel in the EU.

The Swiss government has argued that a 'Yes' vote will boost Switzerland's competitiveness in Eastern Europe. It says safeguards, such as those put in place by 12 EU member states since 1 May 2004, will mean that migratory flows will not be dramatically affected.

"95% of all Europeans in Switzerland come from the EU15," said Raphael Saborit, a spokesman for the Swiss foreign ministry.

Anticipation of a referendum in Switzerland, to be held on 25 September, on the extension of the agreements on the freedom of movement to the EU's ten new member states and the revision of the accompanying measures. Author suggests that the outcome of the vote could have an deep impact on EU-Swiss relations.

• Primary Source

Switzerland: European Integration Office: Bilateral Agreements I: Popular Vote Agreement on Free Movement http://www.europa.admin.ch/ba/pers/e/index.htm

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