Union steps up efforts to topple Milosevic regime

Date: 06/07/2000

By John Shelley

WHERE bombs and guns have failed to oust Slobodan Milosevic from power, EU leaders are now hoping such mighty weapons as town-twinning will succeed.

The stubbornness of the Serbian president in clinging on to office since the end of the Kosovo conflict last year is driving Union governments to resort to increasingly subtle tactics to get rid of the human thorn in the side of Balkan stability.

After 12 months of sanctions, Milosevic is showing few signs of loosening his grip on the Serbian steering wheel, and European leaders are now pinning their hopes on the power of the ballot box. But however much their tactics may have changed, one thing remains the same: just as Milosevic is determined to stay, EU leaders are committed to making sure he goes. "Resistance to political change in Belgrade remains the single main obstacle to defusing tensions in the region and to developing an inclusive policy of regional co-operation," says the Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

In a bid to persuade the Serbian people to throw their president out of office, the EU is taking a three-pronged approach. And if this is not enough, there is the European Commission's promise of €2.3 billion in Union aid when and if power changes hands.

Firstly, member states are seeking to at least partially counterbalance Milosevic's ruthless suppression of the broadcast and print media, illustrated by last month's forced shut down of the independent television station Studio B, with a €600,000 emergency aid package the most visible of the measures the Union is planning.

Secondly, member states are keen to encourage cooperation between the EU, established European non-governmental organisations and similar groups inside Serbia. By building links with, and supporting, groups such as farming associations, women's organisations, trade unions and regional interest groups, the Union hopes to entrench European and democratic ideals in the hearts and minds of the Serbian people.

However, this approach poses some dangers, similar to those highlighted by parallel plans drawn up to favour certain businesses. Officials have drawn up a preliminary "white list" of Yugoslavian companies which will be exempted from sanctions for withholding revenues from the Serbian government.

Critics say such rules could make EU-friendly groups easy targets for official shutdown, and even Solana has admitted there will be difficulties. "Considerable care will be needed in selecting representative and energetic dialogue partners in this sensitive segment of civil society," he said.

The third prong of the public-relations trident with which the Union hopes to skewer Milosevic are plans to boost reg-ional authorities which are already run by opposition groups in an effort to increase their share of the vote in local and federal elections due to be held this autumn.

In this vein, Solana is keen to encourage member states to provide cash and political support for town-twinning projects in the hope of bringing together low-level EU and Serbian leaders and officials. The Union also plans to launch a "schools for democracy" programme, following up on its "energy for democracy" scheme, under which the EU will provide cash to improve schools in opposition-controlled areas.

Serbia's education system has been devastated by almost ten years of sanctions imposed after the Bosnian war and then the Kosovo crisis, and currently employs only 100,000 people in a country of 7.5 million.

Union leaders hope that by demonstrating the benefits of closer ties with the EU to the people of Serbia first hand, they will think again about Milosevic's anti-Europe rhetoric.

The problem with the political approach to ousting Milosevic is that the Serbian opposition politicians are neither a united group or fawning slaves to the Union's tactics. EU governments have been stung in the past by politicians from the Serbian Renewal Movement and the Democratic Party of Serbia boycotting Union talks and accusing the EU of being quick to talk but slow to act.

Hopes of opposition gains in the forthcoming elections nevertheless remain high, with the majority of the opposition parties agreeing to stand on a common anti-Milosevic ticket.

"Autumn elections, if they actually take place and are genuinely free and fair, will provide an important test for the strength of the opposition and could become a catalyst for democratic change," said Solana.

These elections will not just be a test for Milosevic. They will also provide an indication, albeit an early one, of the success or otherwise of the EU's softly-softly approach.