Union sinks to bottom of political agenda in Norway

Date: 11/09/1997

IT IS revealing that scarcely two years after Norway was split down the middle over membership of the European Union, EU issues have all but fallen off the political agenda.

When the country goes to the polls next week, the Union will be almost totally ignored as Norwegians focus instead upon social welfare questions such as hospitals, pensions and immigration.

“Europe is really not very much of an issue,” explained one official in Norway's mission to the Union.

Although not as marked, this silence evokes memories of the national amnesia about Europe following the country's bitter referendum of 1972. Then, even more so than in 1994, the Scandinavian country chose to hold out against European integration only after weeks of debate which split friendships and families asunder.

Chastened by the experience, Norway turned Europe into a taboo subject for many years, only emerging fully again in the 1990s.

Although the silence is not as absolute in the aftermath of Norway's second 'no', none of the major parties contesting next Monday's (15 September) general election looks likely to rekindle the fires of Union membership for at least another term of office.

This, suggests the Economist Intelligence Unit in its latest Norway country forecast, could be an expensive mistake, as inward direct investment falls off in all sectors except oil and gas.

Furthermore, Norway is increasingly having to accept - with no opportunity to influence - the consequences of EU policy anyway, through its participation in the European Economic Area, close ties to its neighbours and the natural forces of the market.

Nonetheless, wounds heal slowly and advocates on both sides of the debate are happy to let things lie low for the time being. According to political analysts, Oslo is unlikely to launch a new attempt to join the EU before the year 2001.

In the meantime, incumbent Labour Prime Minister Thorbjoern Jagland is fighting what many feel is a rearguard action to avoid defeat at the hands of his centrist opponents.

The general consensus is that if he fails to attract more than 34-35&percent; of the vote, he will have to make way for an alliance of Christian Democrats, liberals and centrists. Although far from certain, the most likely prime minister should the centre win is Christian Democrat Kjell Magne Bondevik.

Also in the equation, although almost guaranteed to be in opposition whatever happens, are the Conservative Party and the recently-emerged nationalist Progress Party.

Over the past months there has been growing alarm at the popularity of the far right, coupled with a fierce debate inside Norway over the role of immigrants.

With that in mind, one might have expected Europe to sneak into the picture because of Norway's plans to join the Schengen Convention, which allows border-free movement between its members.

But since its Storting (parliament) made the decision before the summer, the debate is over and done with, say officials.