Union prepares two-year plan to back up Bosnia elections

Date: 12/09/1996

By Elizabeth Wise

THIS weekend's elections in Bosnia will mark the culmination of years of efforts to bring peace to the war-torn nation. They will also mark the beginning of what is likely to be another two-year drive by the EU to ensure it lasts.

Instead of expressing the euphoria that might be expected about a country coming out of war and going to the ballot-box, EU governments are still cautious, wary of the outcome and not over-confident that democracy will permanently replace blood-letting.

The 15 governments are now putting together the elements of a two-year plan to rebuild the economy, monitor human rights, ease the return of refugees, ensure arms control and, most of all, cement democratic power-sharing in the region.

International High Representative Carl Bildt describes these challenges as the hardest part of the entire process.

“We go now into the most difficult phase,” he said. “Everything so far has been easy by comparison, because now we go to the essence of what the conflict was about - power.”

The EU's answer is dubbed the “peace consolidation plan”. It is designed to last until the next set of Bosnian elections in September 1998, ensuring that they take place without the labels of “farce” and “sham” which have been attached to this weekend's (14 September) vote by critics who fear that the people who win the elections will be the very people who led the war and have not yet been brought to trial.

France first presented the consolidation plan last June during a meeting of donor countries in Florence. It has since gained widespread support from EU governments and was endorsed by foreign ministers at their informal meeting in Tralee last weekend.

The ministers will discuss it again when they meet on 1 October, with the added input of their political directors and ambassadors who will have met in the meantime.

Bildt supports the plan, and has said he is confident that the US will endorse it as well.

Ireland has also announced that it will host a conference on 28 September to raise funds and pledges for manpower contributions to a new Bosnian police force. Irish officials say 40 countries will be invited to the meeting, characterising proper policing as an essential element in preventing antagonistic populations from reverting to war. Dublin also announced that the EU might host another international donors' conference for Bosnian reconstruction early in 1997.

The calendar for the rest of this year is rapidly filling up. France wants to host a meeting of foreign ministers of the international steering committee in November, thereby upgrading the regular monthly meeting of officials of those countries, and to invite the three newly-elected winners of the Bosnian presidency race: one Muslim, one Croat and one Serb.

A 4-5 December meeting is planned in London for the Director's Group, which is expected to further cement implementation plans for the peace consolidation drive.

EU governments, along with the US, Russia and other UN and NATO partners, must also agree this autumn on what kind of military presence to retain in Bosnia.

The IFOR peacekeeping force must go by the end of the year, but most capitals agree on the need for a continued, if much-reduced, force. Bildt says its size can be “very limited, but it must be a force with robust military capacity”.

French diplomats say the Union's continued civilian presence, as envisaged in their plan, would not resemble the EU administration of Mostar. But advisers would be on hand to help coach Bosnians through the process of running the newly-formed Muslim-Croat house of representatives and the Bosnian Serb national assembly. Paris also advocates deploying human rights monitors.

Bildt's avid support for the plan is prompting speculation that he would like to stay on as the top coordinator of EU input. But so far, Bildt himself has avoided answering this question.

EU election monitors are already on the spot gearing up for Saturday's vote. They will form part of an Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) team charged with ensuring polling is free and fair and verifying the results.

As for the municipal elections which should also have been held this weekend, the Union and Bildt will push for a mid-November date, stressing that the speedy installation of local officials is necessary to help refugees return home - another key ingredient in consolidating hard-won peace.