Union caught on the horns of a dilemma over Taiwan

Date: 06/04/2000

By Gareth Harding

TAIWAN is one of South East Asia's smallest states, but if the events of the last few weeks are anything to go by, it could become one of the EU's biggest headaches in future years.

The trouble started last month when China issued a policy paper on cross-strait relations in which it declared that Taiwan was "an inalienable part of the territory of China" and warned of military action if Taipei put off reunification talks indefinitely.

The head of Taipei's office in Brussels Huang Yen-Chao condemned the threat as a "serious, provocative and dangerous" action which breached an informal accord between the two sides.

The aim of the move was to caution Taiwanese electors not to vote for pro-independence candidates in last month's presidential elections. But in the event, Beijing's sabre-rattling had the opposite effect as voters swung behind Chen Shui-bian, who ran on a platform of putting clear blue water between the island state and its giant neighbour.

Chen's election has put the Union in a difficult diplomatic position regarding both Taiwan and China. As a supporter of the 'one China, two systems' concept, it cannot possibly back Taipei's independence. Yet it also knows that it cannot stand aside and let East Asia's second largest economy threaten the region's fourth biggest market with invasion.

Unlike the US Congress, which never misses a chance to stick the boot into Beijing, the EU reacted calmly to the first ever democratic transfer of power on Chinese soil.

Congratulating Chen on his victory, External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten said he hoped relations between Beijing and Taipei would "develop in a peaceful way" as a result of the poll. The Portuguese presidency also sought to play down the significance of the result.

Part of the reason why the Union can afford to take a relaxed approach to the South China Sea stand-off is because of Beijing's ongoing bid to join the World Trade Organisation.

Officials know that after 14 years of talks, China is highly unlikely to jeopardise its chances of joining the trade club by carrying out its threat to invade the break-away republic. When asked whether tensions between Beijing and Brussels could delay Chinese membership of the WTO, Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy placed the ball firmly in China's court, replying: "That is not a question for me; you should ask the Chinese."

Lamy also highlighted the EU's belief in completely delinking political and trade issues when dealing with the Communist dictatorship when he said that, as far as he was concerned, "I have a mandate from EU member states that has no reference to Taiwan".

But Yen-Chao told European Voice that "you cannot separate political and economic matters" when looking at the issue and called on the Union to play a "more important role in solving the problem". With more than €35 billion in trade between the two sides at stake, finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict which has pitted the Communist mainland against the nationalist-led island for over half a century is as vital to European business as it is to stability in the region, added Taiwan's man in Brussels.

Calls for a more proactive policy towards China are likely to fall on deaf ears, however, given the Union's softly-softly approach to what is potentially the world's biggest market.

Since the Tiananman square massacre more than a decade ago, Europe's political leaders have frequently paid lip service to criticising China for its appalling human rights record. However, this has not stopped EU countries from bending over backwards to gain a foothold in the €1.3 billion strong market.

Indeed, Union governments have been so keen not to antagonise Beijing that in recent years they have refused to sponsor a motion condemning the country for its rights record at the annual United Nations Commission on Human Rights meeting in Geneva.

Since his victory, Chen has been making conciliatory noises towards Beijing and when the election rhetoric dies down, the prospects of a breakthrough in the half-century old stand-off are probably better than for years. Yen-Chao says that "if one China is not a precondition but a topic to be discussed, we are ready to talk".

But with Beijing's baggage being stripped away like old wallpaper, the cloak of a greater China is almost all Zhu Rongji's regime has to drape itself in, spelling potential trouble for Taiwan, the EU and the rest of the world.