Ukrainian politics: the balance of forces after three years of war

Abstract:

The political situation in Ukraine is determined primarily by the ongoing war, and the situation of stalemate at the front is raising the level of public impatience. President Petro Poroshenko has consolidated the overwhelming majority of power in his hands, but he is not using it to fulfil his election promises; rather he is focused on strengthening his position.

The significant weakening of the People’s Front, the coalition partner of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, as well as the majority of opposition parties has contributed significantly to this state of affairs. Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroysman remains dependent on the head of state, although he has gradually been strengthening his own political position. This has been accompanied by an increase in the importance of the Presidential Administration and the apparatus of the state, whose staff follow the President’s lead. We may also note a rise in the importance of the interior minister Arsen Avakov, who is also building up his own political position while remaining in the shadows. The political determination of the organisations of veterans of the war in Donbas is also noticeable, as is that of the nationalists.

Moreover, preparations for the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections are becoming increasingly important The president’s team are primarily focused on preventing the emergence of any new significant political forces which could threaten the balance of power created after the Revolution of Dignity. It seems that there will be no dissolution of the parliament or change of government in the coming months, a factor which will deepen the present stagnation of the process of reforming the country.