Ukraine on the brink

To the wrong Victor the spoils?

“YU-SHCHEN-KO”. Such rhythmic chanting by the demonstrators in Kiev's Independence Square and in front of the Rada, Ukraine's parliament, this week has been both depressing and uplifting. Depressing, because the Ukrainian people were protesting against a naked attempt by supporters of Victor Yanukovich, the current prime minister and choice of the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, to steal their presidential election on November 21st. Yet also uplifting, because hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians, many of them young, wearing orange ribbons and scarves, were prepared to brave freezing temperatures and snow to demand peacefully that the rigged result be reversed in favour of their candidate, Victor Yushchenko. At stake is not just a disputed election result. Ukraine's future is in the balance.

That the election was fraudulently conducted is not in doubt. International observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, from America and from the European Union all reported widespread violations on a scale greater even than in the first-round vote three weeks ago, although the media coverage was less overtly biased this time. There was fraudulent use of absentee ballots, election monitors were ejected and turnout figures as high as 98% were recorded in parts of Donetsk, Mr Yanukovich's home region. The election count gave Mr Yanukovich victory by almost three percentage points. But a fair vote could well have gone Mr Yushchenko's way.

Civil disobedience, or civil war

The most immediate question is, what should Mr Yushchenko do now? So far, he has held firmly to the moral high ground, insisting that all protests remain calm and peaceful, and avoiding any provocation of the police. Yet in the days ahead he will need to tread a fine line between protest and civil disobedience, and an anarchy that could lead to fighting and bloodshed. Tensions between the western part of Ukraine (overwhelmingly pro-Yushchenko) and its eastern regions (overwhelmingly pro-Yanukovich) were already high: civil war is imaginable. At mid-week, Mr Yushchenko's side seemed prepared to negotiate with Mr Kuchma and Mr Yanukovich, in an attempt to work out some sort of peaceful resolution. Following the lead of Colin Powell, America's secretary of state, Western governments are refusing to recognise Mr Yanukovich's victory and are calling for a peaceful compromise. If they keep up the pressure, a way might be found: a complete recount, a setting-aside of the most blatantly fraudulent votes, even a re-run of the election.

And if the search for compromise proves elusive? The Yushchenko camp is loth to settle for anything less than victory. The government might resort to force to disperse the protesters, after a decent interval has taken them off the front pages - and then install Mr Yanukovich. This would raise a second big question: how should the West respond?

The crisis over these elections is primarily for Ukrainians to resolve, but outsiders have a strong interest. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was swift to congratulate Mr Yanukovich, for whom he had openly campaigned. Russia is determined that Ukraine should not follow the example of Georgia, whose “rose revolution” of a year ago brought to power a pro-western president, Mikhail Saakashvili (who is, as it happens, a good friend of Mr Yushchenko's). Mr Yanukovich might well not be a Russian puppet, any more than is Belarus's authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenka - but he would certainly tilt the country away from the West and towards Moscow.

Avoiding another Belarus

Ukraine matters even more than Belarus or Georgia, in terms of size (almost 50m people), in economic significance (crucial oil-and-gas pipelines cross its territory) and in strategic importance. In the end, western governments will have to engage with whichever leader emerges. Yet fears that the country might be driven further down the same authoritarian path as Belarus should not deter them from forcefully protesting if Mr Yanukovich assumes the presidency come what may. Nor should America be swayed by the presence of Ukrainian troops in Iraq (the country has one of the bigger contingents). And nobody should be put off by fears of offending Mr Putin, whose interference in Ukraine, as in other parts of the former Soviet Union, has already gone far beyond the legitimate.

To acquiesce in an overt undermining of Ukraine's nascent democracy in the interests of realpolitik would not only be a miscalculation, as well as a bad example to set for other more-or-less authoritarian countries from the former Soviet Union. It would also betray the thousands of Ukrainians who are out in the streets of Kiev and other cities, who look to the West as their inspiration. Moreover, it would do little to coax a Yanukovich-led country away from the unhealthier aspects of Russia's influence. Should the worst happen in Ukraine, then, Americans and Europeans should not hesitate to punish those responsible, for instance by imposing visa bans, or freezing their assets abroad - the sorts of measures that have already been imposed on Belarus for its rigged elections.

If sticks need to be wielded, though, there should also be carrots. America and Europe have been actively encouraging Mr Yushchenko, and assisting civil-society groups in Ukraine. They should continue to do both. But they should also consider offering more concrete inducements to Ukraine in return for steps back towards the proper democratic track: cuts in Europe's high tariffs on steel and farm goods, for example, or progress with Ukraine's bid for membership of the World Trade Organisation and a readiness to classify it as a “functioning market economy” (a status already conceded to Russia, whose economy looks less worthy of the title). Above all, the European Union should look for ways to repeat the trick it has managed so successfully with central Europe and, more recently, with Turkey: to dangle the prospect of membership, however distant, as a lure that pulls Ukraine, whoever turns out really to have won this time, more firmly towards liberal democracy. The brave people in Ukraine's streets are ready: is Europe?

Editorial.

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