Ukraine: In search of plan B

The opposition seems to have the upper hand in Ukraine's political crisis. But the regime may not be finished yet

PERCHED, charioteer-like, on a slow-moving van, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Timoshenko, two allies of Victor Yushchenko, rode through Kiev on December 1st, proclaiming their triumph to elated supporters. The Rada, Ukraine's parliament, had earlier passed a vote of no confidence in Victor Yanukovich, still (just) prime minister, who by the rigged official count beat Mr Yushchenko in the run-off election for the country's presidency on November 21st. In the tussle between the two Victors, one now looks vanquished. The real fight may be between Mr Yushchenko and President Leonid Kuchma.

The narrow vote in the Rada, which has put pressure on Mr Kuchma to dismiss Mr Yanukovich's government, was only the most dramatic of the week's legal and political set-pieces. Over the weekend, the Rada had voted to set aside the discredited election results. Ukraine's supreme court spent the week considering the Yushchenko camp's allegations of electoral fraud. At midweek the court was still deliberating, although the European Union's foreign-policy supremo, Javier Solana, said it was likely to abjure the result, after which a deal on new elections would be done. Mr Solana was just one of many bigwigs from Russia, Poland and other parts of the EU to shuttle in and out of Kiev.

Who actually has the power to set aside the election is a somewhat murky question. But his morale-boosting victories in the Rada contributed to Mr Yushchenko's biggest triumph, which was to keep the crowds who had first gathered on election night out on the snowy streets of central Kiev. They danced, they slept, they blockaded government offices - and they marched repeatedly up to the top of the hill where the court and Rada are situated, then back down to Independence Square. But above all they stayed, in their several hundreds of thousands. A pro-Yushchenko tented mini-city, sustained by donated food, occupies almost the whole of the city's main street. In a nearby park, where Mr Yanukovich's backers tried to establish a short-lived rival encampment, an exuberant pro-Yushchenko steel band is now ensconced, along with ice statues in the shape of his slogans.

Apart from one hairy incident on November 30th, in which Mrs Timoshenko appeared to incite an invasion of the Rada, the protesters have been extraordinarily peaceful. The Yushchenko team has established its own cordon between the crowds and the riot police guarding the presidential administration, whose barrier is festooned with flowers and orange memorabilia (the Yushchenko campaign's colour). When a small, plucky column of old people and priests marched through the orange throng, carrying icons and blue-and-white Yanukovich flags, there were remonstrations but no molestations. When a young man, apparently drunk, turned up with a Yanukovich flag close to Independence Square, Yushchenko supporters posed for photographs with him.

This well-judged combination of palpable force with restraint has succeeded in concentrating political minds. So far the government has let the protesters alone - though there are credible reports that, on two occasions, plans were set in train to disperse the crowds. On the first, government officials reportedly scotched the initiative themselves. On the other, threatening troop movements near Kiev are said to have been curtailed after intervention from America at the very highest level.

The Yanukovich camp has tried another tactic: conjuring up the spectre of secession by the Russian-speaking southern and eastern regions, in which Mr Yanukovich is genuinely popular (because of his protection of heavy industry and his pledges to make Russian a second official language and to introduce dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship). He attended a big regional rally on November 28th at which there was talk of “autonomy”. Impetuous threats to hold snap local referendums have been retracted, but Donetsk, Mr Yanukovich's stronghold, has rescheduled its poll for next month. This plays on fears that a schism in Ukraine, a heterogeneous country that has existed in its current form only since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, is by no means impossible.

Yet it now looks as if Mr Yanukovich has only the slimmest chance of ever becoming president. The poverty of his tactics and his opponent's strength have frightened off allies who seemed ready to fight for the prime minister a week ago. Among them, it seems, may be Vladimir Putin, Russia's president. Mr Putin's decision to endorse Mr Yanukovich, by visiting Ukraine during the campaign and by rushing Ukraine-friendly legislation through Russia's parliament, always looked odd. Despite characterisations of Mr Yushchenko as “pro-western” and his opponent as pro-Russian, their foreign policies may not have differed much in practice. Mr Putin may just have wanted to show that Russia was still the boss in its so-called “near abroad”. His rush to congratulate Mr Yanukovich immediately after the election now looks plain foolish.

Olexiy Haran, of the Kiev-Mohyla Academy, says that Mr Putin's cack-handed intervention has “created a whole generation of Ukrainian patriots, including many in the Russified areas”. He has also provoked what some diplomats say is the most serious falling-out yet between post-Soviet Russia and the EU. Russian officials, many of whom still see Ukraine as a wayward province, not an independent country, are angry about what they perceive as western neo-imperialism. The Europeans and Americans wanted Mr Yushchenko to win but, unlike Mr Putin, they confined themselves, at least in public, to advocating honest elections.

Some say the Russians are still meddling. Mr Poroshenko believes that Russian troops are in Kiev to guard Mr Kuchma. This is vehemently denied by Russian officials, and by those in Kiev who ought to know. Now Mr Putin, who is said to have acquiesced to fresh elections to sort out the mess, may be thinking of cutting his losses. Even before the no-confidence vote this week, Mr Kuchma was showing signs of ditching Mr Yanukovich. On December 1st Mr Yanukovich himself said the election was fraudulent, though he refused to resign as prime minister. But the key negotiations will now be between the Kuchma and Yushchenko teams.

Mr Yushchenko's people want him declared the winner immediately. Failing that, the big question is what sort of new elections to hold. To capitalise on his momentum and his opponents' confusion, Mr Yushchenko is adamant that there must only be a re-run of the second round, which he would almost certainly win, especially after mini-revolutions at state-controlled television stations. Mr Kuchma prefers to restage the entire procedure, which could take several months and might mean new candidates.

One such could be Serhiy Tihipko, who took time off from his day job as head of the central bank to chair Mr Yanukovich's campaign. This week, as the bank imposed emergency controls on cash withdrawals, he resigned from both positions. Some in Mr Kuchma's circle would have preferred to put up the feline Mr Tihipko, with his smooth demeanour and casuistic debating skills, as the government's candidate in the first place.

Late on December 1st, Mr Yushchenko also agreed in principle to Mr Kuchma's longstanding plan for constitutional reform to dilute the powers of the presidency, and augment those of parliament and the prime minister. Talks, and wrangling over the terms of a new election, will resume after the supreme court rules. Will Mr Yushchenko accept further compromises? And could he sell them to the thousands camped out in the Kiev snow?

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