Ukraine Before Vilnius: Who Blinks First?

At the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit at Vilnius in November 2013, Ukraine could be the first to sign the Association Agreement (AA) and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union. The signing and ratification of these two agreements would have numerous political and economic medium- and long-term consequences for Ukraine, its EU neighbors and EaP member states. However, developments on three different levels, largely related to Russia, made a pessimistic scenario highly plausible.