UK Tories ‘not bound to back EPP’ in choosing Commission president

By Martin Banks

Date: 15/04/04

THE European People's Party (EPP) is wrong to think it can rely on the support of UK Conservatives over its choice of the next European Commission president, says a top political scientist.

EU leaders are expected to appoint a successor to Romano Prodi at an EU summit on 17 June, four days after the European elections.

Centre-right parties have already demanded that the next Commission president come from the ranks of the dominant political group in Parliament.

The 232-strong EPP, Parliament's largest group, has yet to formally declare which candidate it supports, but Professor Simon Hix, of the London School of Economics, warns it cannot rely on the support of the 37 UK Conservative MEPs over its preferred choice.

The British Tories, who, after the Germans, represent the EPP's second biggest national delegation, recently renewed their alliance with the Christian-Democrats, under a deal which will allow them to promote their own agenda of an EU of nation states without being bound by federalist EPP aspirations.

"The arrangement between the EPP and the UK Tories is purely a marriage of convenience and the support of the Conservatives, which, at present, would obviously be important to the EPP, cannot be guaranteed," Hix told this newspaper.

"The most likely scenario is that the British Tories will insist on some sort of political trade-off, say the chairmanship of a key Parliamentary committee, in return for supporting the EPP Commission president candidate," he added.

He believes that, although most of the Parliament's political groups are "genuine and cohesive" transnational parties whose members consistently vote on party lines, "the only exception is the EPP's current arrangement with the UK Tories".

However, this was strongly refuted by Jonathan Evans, leader of the UK Conservatives, who said: "If you look at voting patterns over the last five years you'll see that, apart from constitutional and institutional matters, there has been significant agreement between UK Tories and other EPP members."

According to a study presented by Hix and Michael Marsh, of Dublin's Trinity College, the EPP-ED will again emerge as the largest political group after the 10-13 June poll.

The study predicts that parties from the centre-right would gather 285 of the Parliament's 732 seats (39%), with the Socialists once again their main rival with 217 seats, or 30%.

But such an outcome would still leave the EPP short of a Parliamentary majority and, therefore, less likely to dictate the choice of a new Commission president.

Hix believes the Liberals (ELDR) could emerge as the key power-brokers over the choice of a successor to Prodi.

He predicts the ELDR will win 73 seats (10%), which could also give it a pivotal role in day-to-day legislation.

Hix and Marsh claim their forecasting model - based on the outcome of previous European elections - is more reliable than opinion poll data and proved 92% accurate when applied in previous polls.

Article looks at a study by UK academics Simon Hix and Michael Marsh of the likely outcome of the EP elections in June 2004, and predicts tensions between the European People's Party and its UK Conservative Party allied members concerning who it will recommend as the next European Commission President.