Turks jolted – but a ‘train crash’ is averted

European Commission President José Manuel Barroso hailed what he called the "new consensus" on enlargement reached by EU leaders at the summit last week (14-15 December).

On Turkey it looked as if the Union avoided the "train crash" flagged up by Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn in spring. Whereas negotiations had effectively come to a halt as opening any new chapters was vetoed, the deal holds at least the possibility of moving forward on some of the chapters which have not been frozen in response to Turkey’s failure to open its ports to Greek Cypriot vessels.

In an unusual turn of events, EU leaders did not take it upon themselves to reach a deal on Turkey, preferring instead to rubber-stamp the agreement obtained by foreign ministers. This tactic avoided the risk that the summit descended into a very public row. And not having dealt with the issue at the highest political level does not seem to have added insult to injury over the suspension of the eight chapters. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül said that the EU’s decision showed a "lack of vision" but the reaction could have been stronger.

The forecast crisis seems to have been averted, for now, although it could re-ignite if Cyprus refuses to allow the opening of negotiations on new chapters in the coming months.

Speaking after the summit, Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who seems to have won the inner German battle for a pro-Turkish position against the opposition of the Christian Democrats (CDU), said he would work hard during the German presidency to make progress on direct trade with Northern Cyprus and financial assistance for the north of the island.

But it was also the general approach to enlargement that threw up divisions among member states. Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, who was probably attending his last summit as Austrian leader, claimed that a pledge from the Commission to prepare assessments on the impact of further enlargements on key policy areas gave his country the power to block any further expansion. Commission officials pointed out that they provide regular reports of candidate countries’ progress once a year anyway so the impact assessments were nothing new, especially as the Turkey debate shows, all member states have a veto over negotiations already.

The awareness that Romania and Bulgaria’s problems on judicial reform and tackling corruption should have been addressed earlier led leaders to agree that there should be more attention at an earlier stage on these issues in future enlargements. They also agreed that the results of "political and economic dialogues" would feed into the accession negotiations. The Union would also refrain from setting target dates for new enlargement until negotiations are close to completion.

Elsewhere the bar for further enlargement could in fact be lowered. Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, with support from his Greek and Slovenian counterparts, has been pushing for an easing of the demand that the Serbs should hand over Ratko Mladic´ before restarting negotiations on a Stability and Assoc-iation Agreement. Prodi wanted a pledge that the EU would review its position after the elections on 21 January.

This easing of the requirement to co-operate fully with the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague is being resisted strongly by the UK and France although whether Germany sticks to this line is not entirely clear. The situation could evolve depending on decisions on the future status of Kosovo.

Leaders rejected an attempt by Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt with the support of his Dutch and Luxembourg counterparts to insist that the next enlargement could only happen once the EU had reformed its institutions. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Chancellor Angela Merkel led the charge against making the two a sequence although Merkel made it clear that "Europe’s house had to be prepared for further enlargement".

There may be a new consensus about future enlargements of the EU but it is a fragile one and one which sees different member states backing different candidates to be the next additions to the club.

Much will depend on the winner of next spring’s presidential elections in France with the centre-right’s candidate Nicolas Sarkozy adamant that Turkey will have to content itself with a privileged partnership.

European Commission President José Manuel Barroso hailed what he called the "new consensus" on enlargement reached by EU leaders at the summit last week (14-15 December).