Turkey’s Third Wave — And the Coming Quest for Strategic Reassurance

Turkey might be entering a 'third wave' in the evolution of its modern foreign policy, with continued regional activism played out in a strategic environment that was increasingly insecure and crisis prone. The prevailing mix of self confidence, assertiveness, and coolness toward Western partners might not be sustainable as Ankara once again required greater reassurance against conflict and chaos on its borders. The return to brinkmanship in the eastern Mediterranean was a further complicating factor, and one that might play a growing role in Turkish-Western dynamics. After a decade of commercial engagement and soft power, hard security issues were returning to center stage. The deepening Kurdistan Workers Party challenge from Northern Iraq, and potentially from Syria, was just one facet of an increasingly troubled security picture across Turkey’s neighborhood.