Turkey’s EU talks in double jeopardy

EU diplomats and the European Commission are increasingly concerned that there will be no progress in accession negotiations with Turkey before the end of the year because of opposition from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and looming presidential elections in Cyprus.

Sarkozy said at the Lisbon summit last Friday (19 October) that no new negotiation chapters with Turkey could be opened until a decision was taken in December to set up a committee of wise people to discuss the future of Europe (see left).

While Sarkozy could accept the opening of new negotiations in December, after the group was set up, there are fears that Cyprus would veto any new talks during its presidential election campaign.

But diplomats say that it would be easier to convince the Cypriots to launch new negotiations in December than to change Sarkozy’s mind over November. Diplomats warned that failure to hold any negotiations with Turkey during the Portuguese presidency would "go down very badly in Turkey".

The country has just come through tough elections which pitted the secular military elite against the mildly Islamist Justice and Development (AK) party and its largely religious supporters.

Turkey’s relationship with the US is also very strained because of the threat of possible Turkish raids against Kurdish militants in Northern Iraq and a bill on Armenian genocide before the US Congress.

Fears that relations could grow worse prompted Olli Rehn, the European enlargement commissioner, to call for further negotiations yesterday (24 October). Rehn told MEPs in Strasbourg: "It’s important we continue opening chapters without delay so we can demonstrate the process is moving forward."

Even though the EU last year ruled out negotiations on eight of 35 possible chapters because of Turkey’s failure to open its ports and airports to Cypriot planes and ships and Sarkozy has vetoed opening talks on joining the euro, the Commission believes that negotiations could start on consumer and health protection, and trans-European networks in the coming months.

EU governments have to agree to open negotiating chapters by unanimity, giving each country the chance to veto the process.

A Portuguese official said that the presidency wanted the enlargement process to go on but pointed out that what the Council decided depended on the Commission. "We take [Rehn’s] statements at face value", the official said, referring to the commissioner’s call to start fresh talks.

EU diplomats and the European Commission are increasingly concerned that there will be no progress in accession negotiations with Turkey before the end of the year because of opposition from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and looming presidential elections in Cyprus.