Turkey’s Constitutional Referendum of 2010 and Insights for the General Elections of 2011

The constitutional referendum of September 2010 was a historic moment and a milestone in modern Turkey’s democratization journey. Serving as the public’s “final say” on the question of democracy in Turkey and paving the way for a new civilian constitution, the referendum will have far-reaching consequences for civil-military relations, independence of the judicial system, and institutionalization of democracy in Turkey. This study investigates the consequences of the referendum for the shaping of the political scene in Turkey by analyzing the political parties’ campaign strategies, voting patterns, voter preferences, and likely scenarios for the June 2011 general elections. The report is divided into four main parts that tackle the main questions that the referendum of 2010 raised. First, what is the significance of the September 2010 constitutional referendum in Turkey? Second, what campaign strategies were most effective during the referendum? Third, what can be deduced from the voting patterns and voter preferences? Fourth, what can we predict about the June 2011 general Elections based on voter behaviors during the constitutional referendum of 2010? The study of the September 2010 constitutional referendum results revealed significant clues as to what could be the results of the June 2011 general elections. The AK Party’s referendum campaign strategy, constructed around “democratic freedoms,” resonated strongly among voters in Turkey. Having analyzed the geographic distribution of votes during the referendum, this report demonstrates that the opposition parties took the risk of becoming merely local or regional parties while the AK Party was the only party with the political discourse that would address the themes that concerned voters across Turkey. The June 2011 general elections may prove to be the most important elections in Turkey’s recent electoral history. Just as a strong preference for “democratic freedoms” among voters became clear during the referendum, the upcoming general election in Turkey is poised to determine who is to survive Turkey’s political landscape over the next decade.

Turkey’s September 2010 referendum on the constitutional amendments is nothing new in terms of holding referendums or amending various constitutions. Public in Turkey is no stranger to referendums and constitutional changes. Yet, the September 12, 2010 referendum is the most significant in many ways.1 Constitutional amendments contained in the package represent a significant step in changing the political and institutional arrangements remaining from the 1960 and 1980 coups. The package is a serious attempt at removing the virtual immunity enjoyed by the military and civilian bureaucracy in Turkey. Aiming to diversify the membership cadres of the High Judiciary by opening it up to more societal and political participation, the package aims to liberalize and democratize the political system.Turkey has made constitutional changes a total of four times in its republican history. The 1921 Constitution was replaced with a brand new constitution in 1924. During the People’s Republican Party’s (CHP) one-party rule up until 1950, the 1924 Constitution was modified after virtually every national convention of the party. Following the 1960 military coup, not only was the constitution changed but the whole political system was reconstructed. Following the 1971 “coup by momerandum”, the 1961 Constitution was significantly changed: autonomy of quasi-state institutions as well as personal liberties was reduced. The 1982 Constitution, drafted after 1980 coup, retained the semi-autonomous institutions (Higher Education Council, high courts etc.) in the system while taking the authoritarianism of the 1971 modifications to the next level. The1982 Constitution itself has been modified on five separate occasions up until today.Turkey has had a total of six referendums in its republican history. The first two referendums were held in the aftermath of the 1960 and 1980 coups (July 9, 1961 and November 7, 1982) for the newly drafted constitutions. Both constitutional referendums passed with 61,5% and 91,37% respectively. The remaining three referendums were related to the 1982 Constitution. The September 6, 1987 referendum was carried out to lift the 5-year ban on politicians and “Yes” votes were a mere 50,1%. The September 25, 1988 referendum “was held on weather” to conduct the local elections one year ahead of the scheduled date but this measure failed with 65% “No” votes. The October 21, 2007 referendum was held in the aftermath of the political crisis over the candidacy for Turkish Presidency. The referendum was on a single item (election of the President by the direct vote of the people instead of by the parliament as was the case before) and passed with 69% “Yes” votes...

ESO: Background information: Erdogan claims victory in referendum http://www.europeansources.info/record/constitutional-referendum-farewell-to-the-old-turkey/

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