Turkey. Not quite at ease

The secular soldiers have changed a lot - but they still watch carefully

WAS IT a warning from the generals? That's how it seemed to residents of Subayevleri, a middle-class Ankara neighbourhood, where the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his family live, when a Turkish air force jet scraped off the tip of the minaret of a mosque near Mr Erdogan's home during practice for the October 29th Republic Day parade.

An unruffled Mr Erdogan retrieved a bit of the jet, presented it at a meeting of the National Security Council and demanded explanations. In the old days, the generals might have coolly acquiesced, yet done nothing. In fact, an apology was made, an inquiry launched and the minaret fixed. It does really seem to have been an accident.

The affair is a telling sign of recent changes in relations between the men in uniform and the country's civilian leaders - and of just how badly Turkey wants to join the European Union. Over the past year Turkey's government, led by reformed Islamists, has rammed through a series of reforms that are meant to persuade EU leaders to start entry talks next year. Besides scolding Turkey for repressing Kurds and torturing people, the EU has long chided the Turks for letting the generals (who have toppled four governments in as many decades) dictate policy.

The weak coalitions that used to rule the country - until Mr Erdogan came to power alone, two years ago - were afraid to confront the soldiers. Not so Mr Erdogan. In August last year, a parliament dominated by his Justice and Development party stripped the National Security Council (where generals used to bark orders) of executive powers and put it under civilian control.

From next year, parliament will be able to probe the armed forces' budget. This year, spending on education exceeded that on defence, another first. Perhaps more extraordinary than the changes themselves is that the men in uniform have accepted them. Much credit goes to Hilmi Ozkok, Turkey's top general, whose affability belies a sharp intellect and iron will.

Since becoming chief of the general staff in August 2002, General Ozkok has altered the face of the country's rigidly hierarchical and secretive armed forces. People close to the anglophile general, who spent nearly half of his career abroad, say he listens to subordinates. Unlike his predecessors, he realises that pressure will only stiffen the backs of politicians who lean towards Islamism; he prefers to co-opt them. He believes that the army should take its orders from the civilians (and has edged out a couple of generals who wouldn't) and wants Turkey to join the EU.

This is not just because he is a committed democrat. He knows that with over 70% of Turks in favour of the EU, the army cannot afford to stand in the way of membership without losing the popular respect it still commands. Besides, to do so would enable Mr Erdogan to supplant the armed forces in their traditional role as modernisers and pro-westerners. With the economy still recovering from a 2001 meltdown, the generals also sense that army intervention in any form could wreck the markets.

While most pundits agree that another coup is highly unlikely, they give warning that further pruning of the army's power is needed for Turkey to join the EU. The defence ministry is still subordinate to the chief of the general staff, who reports directly to the prime minister. Moreover, under its own internal service regulations, the army is empowered still to “defend both the Turkish Fatherland and the Turkish Republic” from vaguely defined threats “ if necessary, by force”. Armagan Kuloglu, a retired air-force general, says his ex-colleagues won't easily relinquish this role.

Anyway, the men in uniform have not retreated altogether. Now they make their views known at monthly press briefings, where they speak out, albeit with restraint, against religious militancy and separatist violence. With the country's leftist opposition mired in feuding, some secular Turks welcome this dissenting voice. Others fear the generals may be sliding back into their old meddlesome ways. There is another worry: will General Ilker Basbug, the land forces commander poised to succeed General Ozkok in 2006, be as reasonable?

Much hinges on whether EU leaders agree, at their December summit, to launch entry talks. Ironically, in the likely event of a yes, some think Mr Erdogan will feel freer to assert his piety; and the army - once relieved of immediate pressure to behave itself - may turn up the volume of its critical noises.

Article discusses the relationship between the military and civilian leaders in Turkey.