Turkey: hoping for a ‘Yes’, fearing a ‘No’

Date: 20/05/04

IN ANKARA and Istanbul, there is a sense of everyone holding their breath: will the big package of reforms passed at the start of May in the Turkish parliament be, as intended, the final key building block in getting a 'Yes' on negotiations for EU membership?

The package makes a number of changes, including removing references to the death penalty in the constitution, taking military influence away from education and broadcasting, giving civil control over military assets and abolishing the state security courts.

The prospect of EU negotiations, the major political goal of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan since his Justice and Development Party (AKP) was elected just over 18 months ago, has driven the unprecedented speed and scope of political reform in Turkey.

It has also produced remarkable consensus across disparate groups in Turkish society - despite their often deep suspicion of each other's motives.

From government and opposition politicians, to business, bureaucrats, human rights NGOs, academics and journalists, there is a strong view that Turkey has done an extraordinary amount in a short time to transform political and state structures and promote democratization - all driven by the goal of joining the European Union.

"It was the increasing incentives of the EU that led to the speed-up," said Atila Eralp, professor at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

"In 2001, reform was very slow and very contested, now there is more consensus. At the start, civil and military relations were not on the agenda. Now they are," he added.

"Five years ago Kurdish questions were taboo, now everyone talks about them and the governing elite's attitudes changed."

Now, as Mehmet Aydin, minister of state for religious affairs, makes clear, people want an answer from the EU: "Turkey has turned its full face to Europe - geographically, culturally. We want a clear answer. The EU has the right to say 'no, you are not European'; if they do, perhaps we cease to be. Turkey has the full right to press her claim and get a result in the end."

Yet, despite apparent consensus, underlying political tensions and divisions remain.

These were illustrated only too well last week, when the government voted through educational reforms that will facilitate students from Islamic schools entering university.

Not only opposition parliamentarians and academics but also military chiefs, in their strongest intervention in six years, voiced protests, and the president is expected to veto the bill.

But despite latent mistrust of the intentions of the AKP, suspected by some of a hidden Islamic agenda, many acknowledge that without the arrival of this government on the political scene, these huge changes would not have happened.

Says one foreign diplomat: "Turkey has not seen so professional a party for 50 years, or perhaps ever. Turkey has a governing party which reflects what people voted for, instead of 'retreads' who ignore them."

Human rights NGOs welcome the changes, but remain highly critical of the failure to ensure proper observance and implementation of the new laws.

Hüsnü Undül, president of the Human Rights Association, said: "You can say Turkey is moving towards democracy but is not a democratic country.

"The death penalty has gone and many cultural rights have been recognized and new laws are enlarging the freedom of expression and association.

"But, in practice, the changes are not stable."

There were reports last year of 1,391 cases of torture.

The fact that progress is welcome but inadequate leads Yavuz Onen, president of Turkey's Human Rights Foundation, to say: "The ideal would be a [European] Commission 'Yes', but with strong conditions."

The Commission last year indicated its concerns over weak implementation of reforms.

New laws allowing radio and television broadcasting in Kurdish are being applied extremely narrowly - no children's programmes, short time limits, subtitle requirements.

"There is a problem with implementing regulations," one European diplomat notes. "Laws are being systematically implemented in a very restrictive way."

Turkish officials, politicians and commentators readily acknowledge these failings, but there is a sense this is not yet being given top political priority.

A mixture of reasons are offered for this foot-dragging, including the ongoing behind-the-scenes power struggle between the AKP government and the military.

Levent Korkut, chairman of Amnesty International Turkey, believes that "resistance is coming from senior and lower levels".

"The bureaucracy and army," he adds, "are still cautious on reforms and still have very strongly nationalistic views in these spheres . . . they have very important power and are going to lose it."

The ministry of justice and Turkey's judges are highlighted by many as a strong bastion of resistance.

But others stress broad mentality changes are needed across the population.

As Kemal Köprülü, chairman of the ARI youth movement, puts it: "Now there is a huge break-up in the social fabric, many issues had been taboo for ten or 30 years . . . Cyprus, Kurdish rights, the position of the army, all these policies collapsed at the same time. So there is a changing mindset of 70 million people."

At the same time, there is widespread fear at the damage an EU 'No' would do to the democratization and reform process.

Not all believe the old guard nationalists could make a comeback. But almost all believe the forward dynamic would be sharply curtailed or lost in renewed political and economic stagnation and even instability.

As Emel Kurma, project coordinator of the Helsinki Citizens Assembly in Istanbul, says: "A 'No' would be a big blow.

"I don't think we are strong enough to deal with a possible shift of power back to the establishment.

"Nationalism will again sweep through. The big hard guys will say 'weren't we right, Turks have no other friends than Turks'.

"It would have a great effect on Islamic thinking worldwide - it's bigger than the majority of Europeans see."

For Turkey - and for the EU - the stakes are high.

• Kirsty Hughes is an associate fellow of the European Institute of the London School of Economics.

Article considers whether the raft of reforms introduced in Turkey in the last 18 months will be enough for the European Union to open accession talks.