Turkey and the European Union: how to achieve a forward-looking and ‘win-win’ accession by 2015

Turkish accession to the European Union (EU) over the next decade or so is expected to change significantly both Turkey and the EU in economic, cultural and political terms. In order to make sure that this change will be for the better, both sides need to develop a common vision aimed at a win-win and forward-looking outcome from the outset. Otherwise, the accession negotiations, due to commence on 3 October 2005, are likely to encounter a serious risk of failure if they are left to the normal negotiation procedures. A key message to emerge in this paper is that the EU leaders should judge Turkey on the basis of its potential economic, cultural, demographic and geostrategic importance from today to 2023 and what the future holds for Europe by then - not on the narrow and short-term concerns and interests of today.