Author (Person) | Chudziak, Mateusz, Strachota, Krzysztof |
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Publisher | Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) |
Series Title | OSW Analyses |
Series Details | 10.02.16 |
Publication Date | 10/02/2016 |
Content Type | Journal | Series | Blog |
The military successes of Assad’s forces backed by the Russian Federation in northern Syria marked the beginning of a new phase in the Syrian crisis. One of the temporary effects of the offensive was the increasing number of refugees on the Turkish border (30,000 – 70,000 people) and the threat of another wave of migration from the Middle East to the EU in the short term. In the extreme situation, a successful offensive could have ended the Syrian opposition’s resistance in the north of the country and, as a consequence, led to a breakdown of the Turkish policy on Syria. The way the situation has developed in Syria complicated and intensified the ongoing EU-Turkish dialogue on halting and resolving the migration crisis. This became the subject of the unplanned visit which the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, paid to Turkey on 8 February 2016 and it has been discussed during the EU-Turkey summit scheduled on 18 February 2016 in Brussels. Ankara seemed to be determined to force the EU to offer tangible political support for its policy: to stop and protect refugees while they are still in Syria; this would prevent their exodus and would also allow the opposition forces to remain effective in northern Syria. In practice, this was a return to the proposal to create a security zone in northern Syria, which Ankara has been pushing for without effect for years. For the EU, this would have meant a serious step towards direct engagement in the Syrian conflict, something it has consistently avoided. The alternative for the EU would have been a crisis in relations with Turkey and would have included the threat of a huge wave of new refugees coming from both Syria and Turkey, and, in effect, the need to thoroughly revise its approach to Turkey and the region as a whole. |
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Source Link | http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-02-10/turkey-and-eu-play-a-security-zone-syria |
Countries / Regions | Middle East, Turkey |
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