Turkey and Syria: The Middle Eastern Risks NATO Cannot Ignore

The escalation of the turmoil and violence in Syria, coupled with the tense military confrontation along the Turkish-Syrian border, underscored the marked deterioration of the strategic environment in Turkey’s Middle Eastern and Mediterranean neighborhoods. The Turkish leadership and Turkish public opinion was clearly in no mood to tolerate military threats from Syria. Looking ahead, the most troubling scenario for Turkey might also be the most likely one: protracted chaos and sectarian conflict, leaving a security vacuum across the border, with an ongoing risk of spillovers affecting Turkish security. While both Turkey and the West had had at least ten years in which close cooperation had been optional, then, the highly unstable environment in the Middle East, above all the crisis in Syria, made Turkish-Western partnership essential for all sides.