Turkey. A pivotal nation goes into a spin

Date: 08/03/03

Whatever path Turkey's government chooses, it is bound to face howls of protest

WHEN Turkey's parliament narrowly rejected a government motion on March 1st to let 62,000 American troops on to Turkish soil, a wave of euphoria swept the country, because a good 90% of its people - so say the pollsters - vehemently oppose an American-led war in Iraq. But the joy was short-lived. With dozens of American warships still anchored off Turkey's eastern Mediterranean shores, pressure began mounting on the country's ruling Justice and Development Party to resubmit the bill or risk wrecking relations with the country's most influential friend, the United States. For Turkey's leaders know that, without American co-operation, hopes of rapid economic recovery will recede. And so - just as important, in many Turkish eyes - would Turkey's chance of having a big say in the future of Iraq, its troubling neighbour.

On March 5th, Turkey's top general, Hilmi Ozkok, weighed in on the American side, saying he favoured letting the Americans open a second front against Iraqi forces in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq, with Turkey as the launch-pad. The odd thing about his statement was that he and his fellow generals had refrained from speaking up earlier. Well, they said, they had not wanted to intimidate parliament.

Many generals, in any event, still doubt the sincerity of the ruling party's recent enthusiasm for a secular Turkey, since its roots are Islamist and the party's leader, Tayyip Erdogan, started his career in a zealously Islamist party. Moreover, not all generals take a pro-American line on Iraq. “Once the Americans come they will never leave,” says Kemal Yavuz, a retired general who is strongly against the war. “We don't know where the military or the government really stands in all of this,” says one weary American diplomat.

So what next? Mr Erdogan is still in a pickle. He faces a by-election on March 9th. Five years ago he was barred by a security court from being an MP and therefore from becoming prime minister, because of a conviction for allegedly seeking to incite religious hatred by a poem he recited in 1997. If he again wins a seat, it is understood that he will be let back into parliament (the constitutional article under which he was convicted was amended last year) and should become prime minister within a week or so. Hitherto, he has pulled the strings behind the scenes.

But should he, with the generals' blessing, press for a second vote on the bill before his by-election or wait until his premiership is in the bag? He has to weigh several factors. First, would the Americans wait that long? Just as General Ozkok was making his speech, they had begun to divert some of their ships towards the Suez canal, presumably en route to the Gulf. And the Americans have let it be known that they could still open a northern front by airlifting troops into the mainly Kurdish north of Iraq, and would bank on the Kurdish militia operating there for support.

In any event, whatever the timing of a second bill and however hard the generals now urge MPs to pass it, it would still not be sure to get through. Another defeat in parliament would be a huge blow to Mr Erdogan's leadership, whether or not he had become prime minister. It could even cause the government to fall.

Mr Erdogan plainly misjudged the first vote. He had confidently declared that it would be approved just hours before it was rejected. In the event, 264 MPs did vote in favour and 250 were against, but the presence of 19 abstainers meant that the government had failed by three votes to get a simple majority of all those in the chamber at the time.

With friends like these...

Mr Erdogan had underestimated the strength of dissent within his own Justice and Development Party, better known by its initials AK, some 100 of whose members rebelled. Many were from the Kurdish south-east, and were not so much against American troops coming into Turkey as Turkish ones going into northern Iraq.

Bulent Arinc, a mercurial AK man who is parliament's speaker, made no secret of his delight at the government's humiliation. A fiery advocate of lifting the ban on the Islamic-style headscarf in public institutions, he has a lot of support in the party. Barely an hour after General Ozkok's remarks, he said he was still loth to let parliament debate the bill again, and spoke scathingly of “the war lobby”.

Indeed, he noted, predictions that the Turkish lira would collapse as a result of the no vote and thus bring a fresh financial crisis had proved false. And, though Istanbul's stockmarket dived by 10% just after the vote, it soon began to recover; the lira has since held fairly steady against the dollar, thanks to intervention by the central bank. The IMF further boosted confidence when it said it was happy with a new budget unveiled this week.

But the Americans still have means of persuasion. They made it clear that an aid package worth $6 billion which was meant to cushion the financial effects of a war would be shelved, that the Pentagon would no longer approve the idea (mandated by the quashed motion in parliament) of thousands of Turkish troops crossing into northern Iraq, and that Turkey would have virtually no say in shaping Iraq's future. After the no vote, American military engineers who had begun upgrading Turkish ports in preparation for disembarking troops stopped work.

Old pals fall out

It will take a long time for the wounds opened by the American-Turkish row to heal. The Turks think that the Americans have been clod-hopping and insensitive. Even before the vote, haggling over petty issues had become bitter.

And for all of America's repeated assurances that it does not back the idea of an independent Kurdish state, many of Turkey's generals are suspicious. Some Turkish officials suggest that a wave of anti-Turkish demonstrations in northern Iraq have been encouraged by what one has described as “US agents” in the region.

To make matters more awkward between the Americans and the bruised Turkish government, Turkey's generals seem determined - whatever the Americans say - to wade into northern Iraq. According to some Turkish reports, around 20,000 Turkish troops have already crossed the border. The Iraqi Kurds say they will fight back. Turkey's main rival in the region, Iran, will certainly use its own friends in the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq to compete for influence.

Nor, despite its spat with America, is Turkey winning plaudits in Europe, particularly since it has failed so far to prod Rauf Denktash, the Turkish-Cypriot leader, into agreeing to a settlement in Cyprus. If, however, Mr Erdogan took the risk, before or after his by-election, of resubmitting the bill to let in American troops, he would take a lot of flak from rebels in his own party and from his compatriots at large. Many Turks would then furiously charge him with trampling on democracy and cowering before bankers, generals and bullying Americans. Mr Erdogan has a rough fortnight ahead of him.