| Author (Person) | Kulesa, Lukasz, Shetty, Shatabhisha |
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| Publisher | European Leadership Network |
| Series Title | Policy Brief |
| Series Details | June 2017 |
| Publication Date | June 2017 |
| Content Type | Report |
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The European Leadership Network (ELN) works to advance the idea of a cooperative and cohesive Europe and to develop collaborative European capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence and security policy challenges of our time. It does this through its active network of former and emerging European political, military, and diplomatic leaders, through its high-quality research, publications and events, and through its institutional partnerships across Europe, North America, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. The ELN conceives of Europe in its widest sense, to include not only the EU but Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the rest of our diverse continent. It is unique in its high-level political reach and in its ability to effectively network the political, diplomatic and security elites of all countries across this region and parts of Central Asia. It focuses on arms control and political/military issues, including both conventional and nuclear disarmament challenges inside Europe, and has a particular interest in policy challenges arising in both the eastern and southern peripheries of the continent. The ELN also works to advance economic, political, energy, people to people and sub-regional cooperation within Greater Europe and to build cooperative European solutions to today’s global challenges, be they related to Russia-West relations, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, or the challenge and opportunity of the rising powers. It is a non-partisan, non-profit organisation based in London and registered in the United Kingdom.With the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States, some hoped for a new opening in US-Russian relations. Many feared a 'Yalta' style grand-bargain with division of spheres of influence. As President Trump started a trip to Europe in July 2017, which would include a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Hamburg, both these hopes and fears appeared to be receding. In their place, however, emerged questions about how to manage the dangers of a new phase in a prolonged Russia-West confrontation. The new ELN policy brief argued that the increased level of uncertainty, introduced to the US relations with Russia and NATO by the policy of President Trump, complicated an already tense and challenged deterrence relationship between Russia and NATO. Coupled with the tendency of the Russian leadership to take foreign policy risks, this can produce a combustive mixture leading to a military escalation during any Russia-NATO crisis. The paper does not argue that the war is imminent, but sketched the most dangerous escalation scenarios and proposes a few practical measures to address what seem to be the greatest risks. |
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| Source Link | Link to Main Source http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/medialibrary/2017/07/04/7707a67e/170704%20Trump%20Putin%20and%20the%20Growing%20Risk%20of%20Military%20Escalation.pdf |
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| Subject Categories | Security and Defence |
| Countries / Regions | Europe, Russia, United States |
