Three Troubling Scenarios for Turkey and Transatlantic Partners

In 2012, almost two years on from the start of the Arab Spring, the situation across the Middle East and the Mediterranean continued to produce worrisome security challenges for Turkey and Ankara’s transatlantic partners. Amid these destabilizing changes, three scenarios stood out, and could prove transformative for the security environment in and around Turkey, with no less important implications for Europe and the United States. First, Syria’s civil war could drag on for as long as a decade, further destabilizing an already fragile neighborhood. Second, Iran could develop, or come close to developing, a nuclear weapon. Finally, tensions in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean could escalate from a simmer to a boil.