The world agrees to agree on climate change

Governments from around the world agreed to keep the Kyoto Protocol on climate change alive until at least 2017. They also committed themselves to starting discussions next year on what CO2 emission reduction targets wealthy countries should sign up to when their current targets expire in 2012.

More general talks on climate change under the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), of which Kyoto is a subsidiary, will also begin in earnest next year.

The "agreement to agree" a way to fight climate change was snatched from the jaws of defeat early on Saturday morning (10 December). The UN conference on climate change in Montreal was originally scheduled to finish on Friday afternoon, but a deal was thrown into doubt by ongoing opposition from the US and last minute objections from Russia.

To make matters worse, a blizzard outside the conference hall on Friday was bad enough to be on the news even in Canada in winter. The Americans could have been forgiven for seeing this as divine support for their lack of interest in global warming talks.

The US has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol and so had no control over the agreement finally reached on what to do when the treaty expires in 2012. It is however a party to the broader UNFCCC, on which a deal also had to be struck.

Washington announced at the start of the two-week conference that it would not take part in talks about future CO2 emission reduction targets. It then worked to ensure the final conference text adopted was worded vaguely enough to avoid even hinting at future commitments.

The US delegation also insisted on replacing a reference to consideration of "market based mechanisms" - essentially, the carbon trading market which the EU champions but the US has said it will not join - with the looser "market opportunities".

Most American concerns had been ironed out by Friday evening. Russia, however, then said it could not back a deal unless future talks allowed more room for voluntary as well as binding emission reduction targets.

Backed by Saudi Arabia, at the eleventh hour Russia threatened to block an agreement altogether. It finally consented to postpone a full discussion until the 2006 UN climate change conference in Kenya.

Developing countries offered more scope for optimism to proponents of global emission reduction targets. Though not currently bound by Kyoto targets, poorer countries were generally supportive of action taken under the protocol so far.

South African Environment Minister Marthinus Van Schalkwyk even suggested his country would be willing to take on emission targets, stressing the importance of CO2 reduction in all countries. He added, however, that binding targets were still not appropriate for poorer countries.

Australia also proved willing to discuss emission reduction and carbon trading, though committing itself to nothing at this stage. Australia and the US are the only two large developed countries not bound by Kyoto targets.

Kyoto-bound countries also finalised work on the application of the existing protocol. Notably, they agreed that countries missing their targets will have to make up the difference plus a 30% penalty after 2012.

They also finalised details of a central Kyoto project: the clean development mechanism (CDM), under which developed countries can fund emission reduction projects in poorer areas whilst increasing their own CO2 output.

A deal was reached to speed up CDM funding, with more than $13 million (EUR 11m) earmarked by developed countries for 2006-07.

As chairman of the Montreal conference, Canadian Environment Minister St�ane Dion was praised for his success in spearheading a deal. But he failed to convince observers that Canada's reduction plan would be enough to bring emissions down to the target of 6% below 1990 levels. Canadian CO2 emissions currently stand at about 24% above 1990 levels.

The EU came out of the talks relatively well, having avoided controversy and even kept the majority of green lobby groups reasonably happy.

Kyoto currently obliges 36 industrialised countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

The main points agreed

• Kyoto protocol to run until at least 2017
• Talks on tougher post-2012 CO2 emission reduction targets to begin in 2006
• Kyoto review to start in 2006
• Countries missing their targets under the existing protocol to make up the shortfall after 2012, plus a 30% penalty
• More money to be spent by developed countries on the clean development mechanism, beginning with more than $13 million (EUR 11m) for 2006-07

Analysis of the results of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, Montreal, 28 November - 9 December 2005 (COP-11).

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