The Turkish-Cypriots’ leader: Rauf Denktash at bay

Date: 17/05/03

Could a new Turkish-Cypriot leader emerge in time to make a deal?

RAUF DENKTASH, the embattled Turkish-Cypriot leader, pours cold water on suggestions that “people power” has changed the equation. He insists that the status quo is working fine; all that is needed, he implies, is international recognition of the Turkish-Cypriots' northern statelet. He says he is delighted that the Greek-Cypriots need to show their passports and get visas to cross over to the Turkish side of the wire. He has even offered to let Greek-Cypriots file claims for property in Turkish-Cypriot courts.

But resentment against Mr Denktash among Turkish-Cypriots, not least poorer ones who think they will become a lot richer if the UN plan is implemented, is growing. Public opinion in the north has swung heavily in favour of doing a deal that would let the whole island join the European Union. On their recent trips south, many Turkish-Cypriots stop at a government office to apply for a Cyprus passport to let them travel and work in the EU. “We're fed up with being isolated,” says Ozdil Nami, an up-and-coming businessman. “We want to join Europe.”

That was one reason why mainland Turkey's new reformist prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, campaigned bravely last year in favour of the UN plan. But more recently he seems to have been persuaded by Turkey's ever-influential generals, who see northern Cyprus as a strategic asset, to back Mr Denktash and his policies once again. It is not clear, however, that he will continue to do so.

A growing number of Turkish-Cypriots are starting loudly to question the need for some 30,000 Turkish troops on the island. Many accuse their government of corruption. In February a huge demonstration - at one guess, 70,000 people, a third of the Turkish-Cypriot population, including prominent businessmen and trade-unionists - marched through northern Nicosia shouting slogans against Mr Denktash, with placards that read, “Yes to peace, Yes to the EU.”

Mr Denktash, now 79, looks haggard. He had a major heart operation in October. His legendary charm and pugnacity are fading. The demonstrators, he says, were “on the pay list of foreign powers”. Most Turkish-Cypriots, he insists, are behind him. But it is unlikely that he believes his own words. And he may be running out of time. A general election is due in his self-styled “republic” in December, and opposition parties may well get a majority in its parliament. A new Turkish-Cypriot government could then press Mr Denktash to resign and would appoint a new negotiator readier to see the merits of the UN plan.

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