The Syrian-European Association Agreement and its Potential Impact on Enhancing the Credibility of Reform

Abstract: The effect of 'locking-in' economic reform and enhancing its credibility is generally regarded as one of the most important potential effects of regional integration. The first part of this study outlines a general framework for assessment to evaluate the potential of regional integration agreements (RIAs) for serving as mechanisms of 'signalling' and 'commitment'. This assessment framework is then applied to the case of the Syrian-European Association Agreement (AA) initialled by the chief negotiators of both parties in October 2004. The empirical findings of this study show that despite several shortcomings, the Syrian-European AA, if it were to come into force, should be able to deliver an appropriate mechanism for signalling and commitment and thus to improve the credibility of the Syrian process of reform at home and abroad. A major loophole of the agreement, however, is represented by the inclusion of a clause on weapons of mass destruction (WMD) which might be used by both parties as an 'exit option'. In addition, the AA lacks substantial incentives as 'rewards for good policy'.