The south Caucasus. Murky

Trouble across the border, and for Georgia's boisterous president

GIVEN his own problems in the north Caucasus, you might expect Vladimir Putin to be keen to ensure calm in Georgia, Russia's fractured Caucasian neighbour. But Mikhail Saakashvili, Georgia's president, as bracingly frank about the Kremlin as he is about his own country's failings, has his doubts. For some Russians, he says, Georgia's breakaway enclaves represent “the last bastion of the fight for the empire.”

The Russians say they respect Georgia's territorial integrity, and want only to keep the peace. “ 'Piece-keeping', not peace-keeping',” says Mr Saakashvili. He predicts that the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two troublesome regions, will be finalised during his presidency, which may last another nine years. He has a new plan (“win-win”, he says) for South Ossetia, involving autonomy and cash, but not independence.

But Kremlin imperialism is not his only or biggest problem. Many South Ossetians devoutly want either to join Russia or go it alone. Military skirmishes last year revived memories of their war with Georgia in 1991-92, boosting Russia's popularity and that of Edward Kokoity, their leader. Mr Saakashvili's strong rhetoric worries them; so does what one western diplomat calls the “Potemkin autonomy” in Ajaria, another bolshy region tamed by Mr Saakashvili. After a spate of reciprocal kidnappings by South Ossetians and Georgians last month, the so-called “frozen conflict” looks more likely to unfreeze than be resolved. (Abkhazia, whose own post-Soviet war included ethnic cleansing, will be even tougher.)

The death last week - supposedly from gassing by a faulty heater - of Zurab Zhvania, Georgia's prime minister, is another blow to unification. The president describes Mr Zhvania as his political mentor; others saw him as a rival and restraining influence on him. Mr Zhvania was also a respected mediator with the enclaves. Mr Saakashvili's new prime minister, subject to ratification by parliament, will be Zurab Noghaideli, formerly the finance minister.

Gas heaters, like other things, do tend to malfunction in Georgia. But to many Georgians, the notion that Mr Zhvania's death was an accident is laughably naive. The circumstances were certainly fishy. Some detect an effort by hostile - perhaps “external ” - -forces to destabilise the country, and Mr Saakashvili's presidency. Naturally, there are other theories. Perhaps an FBI team that has flown in from America will clear things up.

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