The seeds for party system change? The 2015 Portuguese general election

Abstract:

The 2015 general election and the subsequent government formation process constituted a watershed moment in Portuguese politics.After several years of economic woes, the incumbent rightist coalition surprisingly won a plurality of seats and votes, contradicting the punishment pattern observed previously in Portugal and in other countries (Dinas and Rori 2012; Fernandes 2011; Garzia 2013; Little 2011; Magalhães 2012). In contrast to other countries, where new parties like Syriza or Podemos experienced exponential growth, Portugal did not see any upheaval at the electoral level. The potentially disruptive transformation came from the government formation process. The second most voted-for party, the Socialists, made an unprecedented agreement with the two extreme-left parties to sustain a ‘contract parliamentarism’ (Bale and Bergman 2006) government. Although within a particular arrangement, the inclusion of those parties in office for the first time since democratisation has the seeds for a potential change in the Portuguese party system (Mair 1997). The full consequences of the 2015 elections will only be totally revealed in the next elections.