The real lesson of the Danish vote

Date: 05/10/00

The Danes have done it again. By voting against membership of the euro zone by a wider margin than expected, they have further dented confidence in the EU's fledging currency and reignited the debate about a two- or even multi-speed Europe.

Union finance ministers and European Commissioners were quick to insist in the aftermath of the vote that nothing had changed. In one sense, they were right. The very reason that Denmark negotiated an opt-out from the single currency back in the early Nineties was because its government knew that public opinion was hostile to the idea. Last week, the Danes merely showed that they had not changed their minds. The EU was a two-speed club from the day three countries exercised their right not to take part in the bloc's most ambitious project from the start. It remains a two-speed club today.

However, the result has forced a change in Union leaders' thinking, because it has dashed the belief shared by many when they agreed to grant the sceptics an opt-out from the single currency that this division of Europe would only be temporary. They were convinced that once the 'outs' felt the chill winds of isolation, they would rush to join and the EU's 15 member states would move forward together as one again.

The fact that this has not happened has provided Union leaders with a sharp reminder that they can only move forward with the support of ordinary citizens and that plans for further integration are doomed unless they win the battle for people's hearts and minds. If other member states had, like Denmark, been required by their constitution to put the single

currency to the vote, only the foolhardy would have tried to predict with any certainty what the outcome would have been in countries like Germany.

So why then have some EU governments, led by France, seized on the result as clear evidence of the need for a 'pioneer' group of member states to push ahead with further integration? If anything, it suggests the reverse: namely, that those who tread the Union's corridors of powers should be wary of marching out of the step with the public they are paid to serve. Instead of rushing to judgement on the significance of the Danish verdict, EU leaders should pause for careful thought.

That is particularly vital in light of the fact that they will soon embark on another venture about which ordinary EU citizens have grave misgivings. If governments do not make sure that they carry public opinion with them as the next wave of enlargement approaches, they could face a fierce backlash which would have far more lasting repercussions for the development of the Union than last week's Danish rebuff.