The prospect of Russian disintegration is low

A key trend in Russia over the past decade has been the fragmentation and erosion of power. Moscow is no longer capable of governing effectively, but, contrary to widespread opinion, power has not been concentrated in the hands of regional leaders. Rather, ‘weak Center — weak regions’ sums up the situation best. Russian leaders, including former Prime Minister Primakov, and many observers warn that centrifugal forces are an increasing threat to Russia's unity.

Countervailing domestic factors and the international environment, however, suggest that Russia is not of the verge of disintegrating or becoming a failed state. The key question for the future is where power will eventually be concentrated, in Moscow or in the regions; that is, whether Russia will rebuild a unitary state or break with its modern history and build a genuine federation.