The other big election. Watch Ukraine

Its presidential election, too, could change the world

THE polls will open soon; the race remains too close to call; the nation is deeply divided; the campaigns are getting dirtier; there are fears of fraud; and the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for the global balance of power. But this is not the United States. On October 31st, Ukrainians too will vote. Their choice of president (though there will probably be a run-off three weeks hence) will be all but ignored in the frenzy surrounding America's ballot; but it should not be. While America's vote may shape relations between the West and the Middle East, Ukraine's will help map out not only the future shape of Europe but also the relationship between the West and another, colder East: Russia, and its former dominions.

Over the past year Russia has convinced most remaining doubters that its brief fling with liberal democracy is over. The gradual strangling of political freedoms, the war in Chechnya, the spiral of terrorism and the opposition's failure to offer something better have sunk the population into apathy and re-awakened the spectre of Soviet-era geopolitics. It is not the cold war, in which the Kremlin sought world domination, but a cold peace, in which Russia will deal with the West when it has to (on issues like trade, energy, weapons and peacekeeping) but wants no meddling in what it feels are its own affairs - including the countries in its sphere of influence, the region it revealingly terms its “near abroad”.

One thing Ukraine's election will do is to define the size of that sphere. Since the Soviet Union broke up its members have followed varying paths. The small Baltic states escaped into Europe's gravitational field. Georgia more recently made a bid for freedom. Most of the other countries remain tightly bound to Russia both politically and economically.

Ukraine, however, now balances on the cusp between Russia and Europe. Though many of its 49m people speak Russian as their first or only language, even some of those are fed up with the cronyism of Leonid Kuchma's pro-Moscow regime, propped up by oligarchic business clans. At the polls they will choose between Victor Yanukovich, one of the clan leaders and Mr Kuchma's dauphin, and Victor Yushchenko, associated with the country's largely Ukrainian-speaking west, who wants to reform the economy, break the oligarchs' grip and forge closer ties to Europe and America.

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Even if elected, Mr Yushchenko would struggle to do that; he has been flawed and indecisive as a prime minister and opposition leader. Vested interests, Russia especially, would put up a fight. But it would feel that it had “lost” Ukraine, one of Europe's biggest countries. It would become more defensive: expect new spats over American influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, Ukraine's growing independence would curb Russia's ability to throw its weight around.

On ordinary Russians, meanwhile, a win for Mr Yushchenko might have an even bigger impact than on those sitting in the Kremlin. Despite 13 years of independence, Ukraine to many Russians is still little more than a Russian province. They do not need a foreign-travel passport to go there. They patronise Ukrainians as the English once did the Irish, as bumpkins and dolts who speak the language funny.

Yet next to Russia, bumpkin-land is starting to look attractive. Ukraine has a vibrant if muddled opposition, a somewhat freer press, a less oppressive secret police, no internal war and, as a result, no terrorism. If Mr Yushchenko wins, stays alive (he fell ill during the campaign in what looks suspiciously like poisoning) and manages to push reforms - all big ifs - then Russians might wonder why the same cannot happen at home. Ukraine's example could inspire political change in its neighbour, and hasten the melting of the cold peace.

The West should therefore not be shy about pushing for a clean election in Ukraine. Russia supports Mr Yanukovich both overtly and covertly. Europe and America should kick and scream about electoral irregularities and encourage Ukrainians to defend their own democracy.

And whoever wins, the West should offer Ukraine the incentives that Russia cannot, and support its ambitions to join NATO, the WTO and the EU. The EU, in particular, could do more to help Ukraine take the first steps towards that distant goal, for instance by lending advisers to help with the reforms that Ukraine would need to implement EU rules and open the door to more EU funding; it could even start discussing what until now has been off the agenda, a timetable and pathway to membership. Showing that Ukraine can escape the Soviet legacy will be a powerful argument against those who believe that Russia and its neighbours are condemned to it.

Editorial.

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