The meeting of the ‘Normandy four: an extension of the status quo in the Donbas

On 2 October a meeting was held in Paris of the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, France and the Chancellor of Germany in the so-called ‘Normandy format’, devoted to resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine and implementing the Minsk agreements of February 2015. No documents were signed during the meeting. The parties admitted the possibility of extending the Minsk agreements, which expire at the end of 2015, but no formal decision was taken. In addition, a decision was made to arrange a ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy military equipment, and an extension of the status of the OSCE mission was announced. A key topic of the discussions was the status of the areas occupied by separatists within Ukraine and the organisation of local elections there, but no binding agreement was reached.

Russia is pushing for Ukraine to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements, in the expectation that this will deepen the internal Ukrainian crisis and allow pro-Kremlin forces to influence decisions affecting the entire country. In turn, Kyiv firmly refuses to grant special status to the separatist regions, as doing so would result in a serious domestic political crisis in Ukraine, and would not be acceptable to parliament or the public.