The March 2009 Local Elections in Turkey: A Signal for Takers or the Inevitable Beginning of the End for AKP?

The article offers a descriptive geographic account of the March 2009 local elections in Turkey. Cluster analysis is employed to investigate the results and changing voting patterns compared with the 2004 local government elections. AKP has stalled but remains the dominant party in the system. The electoral map indicates three main regions: the coastal western and most developed provinces where the opposition is strong, the east and southeastern provinces with rising Kurdish ethnic electoral support, and the more conservative provinces in between where the governing AKP remains dominant with the nationalist MHP trailing behind. Economic developments and the potential reshaping of ethnic Kurdish support will shape the next general election outcome.