The Islamic State in the Caucasus – who benefits?

In the second half of December 2014, there was a split within the ranks of Islamic militants fighting in the North Caucasus under the aegis of the Caucasus Emirate. Several high-ranking commanders from Dagestan and Chechnya declared their allegiance to Emir Ali-Askhab Kebekov (a.k.a. Ali Abu Muhammad) and swore an oath to Caliph Ibrahim, the self-proclaimed leader of the Islamic State (IS). These events will lead to a serious weakening of the Caucasus Emirate and the emergence of armed groups in the Caucasus which formally recognise the sovereignty of the IS, but will actually act independently. While there is no risk of an outbreak of large-scale armed conflict, the likelihood of a new wave of terrorist attacks in Russia and a brutalisation of the Caucasus’s Islamic guerrillas actions is now greater.

At the same time, the emergence of groups in the Caucasus declaring allegiance to IS offers Moscow new opportunities on both the domestic and international stages. In addition to manipulating the warring Islamic groups, the presence of pro-IS fighters and an increase in the threat of terrorism may facilitate the pacification of social discontent in Russia during the economic crisis. The Kremlin can also exploit these factors to break its international isolation by creating the impression that Russia is the West’s ally in the fight against the threat from the Islamic State.